This Reds pitcher is barely clinging to a roster spot after rollercoaster 2025 season

The 2025-26 offseason promises to be a transformative one for the Cincinnati Reds, though whether that's a good or bad thing may depend on your perspective.

Rumblings of a Hunter Greene trade have sent the fanbase into a frenzy, and while it's probably too early to treat those rumors as anything more than conjecture, it's true that the Reds' starting pitching depth puts them in an enviable position heading into the winter. There's a difference, however, between being comfortable and being comfortable enough to trade your ace with four years of club control remaining.

In the meantime, it is worth focusing on impending free agents and players on the fringes of the 40-man roster. Lyon Richardson is one such player. He's out of minor league options and coming off a disturbingly chaotic 2025 season. What does the future hold for the 25-year-old reliever, and is he a lock to return to the Reds next year?

Lyon Richardson's 40-man roster spot with Reds is on thin ice this offseason

The Reds have long prioritized roster flexibility, and the fact that Richardson is out of options is doing him no favors this offseason. He's had his moments, but he's simply never been able to figure out major league hitters. The right-hander has a career 6.05 ERA in 55.0 innings following his 2025 campaign in which he authored a 4.54 ERA (4.06 FIP, 4.92 xERA) in 34 appearances.

The stuff has never really been in question with Richardson—he averages over 95 mph on his fastball and generates a 27.5% whiff rate with his changeup. The problem is that his arsenal is entirely too predictable. Save for his curveball, all three of his other offerings (four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup) have the same general movement profile: between 12-18 inches of run while rising to a certain degree.

Changing velocity is great, but it's hard to fool hitters when they can anticipate where pitches will end up in the batter's box. Hence why none of his offerings were particularly effective in 2025.

Lyon Richardson Output by Pitch, 2025
Four-Seam Fastball: .190 SLG (.35 xSLG), .224 wOBA (.326 xwOBA)
Sinker: .200 SLG (.331 xSLG), .257 wOBA (.338 xwOBA)
Changeup: .507 SLG (.489 xSLG), .377 wOBA (.373 xwOBA)
Curveball: .636 SLG (.432 xSLG), .379 wOBA (.331 xwOBA)

That his primary heaters registered as lucky this past season doesn't inspire a ton of confidence moving forward, even if his off-speed and breaking stuff was hit harder than expected.

All of this is to say: Richardson clearly has the talent to succeed at the MLB level, but time is running out. He probably won't be the first player purged from the 40-man roster when the Reds have a need, but his spot is far from safe. If he does make it to spring training, he'll need to make good on the team's belief, or else he'll risk losing his spot in Cincinnati.