Reds ranked below AL West cellar-dwellers reveals striking disdain for Cincy's roster

The shine has worn off of the Terry Francona news, and Cincinnati Reds fans are looking forward to the 2025 season with mixed feelings most likely. The bullpen and rotation may end up as a mirror of last season, especially with the likelihood of Nick Martinez signing the team’s qualifying offer. The 2024 Reds, though, were not a beacon of hope and competitiveness. In fact, a recent evaluation of the team’s current roster may reveal the Reds’ outlook is worse than fans may have feared.

In MLB.com’s ranking of current rosters by projected WAR, the Reds landed in the underwhelming 25th spot just behind the A’s and in front of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Landing between a vagabond team and the division’s perennial cellar-dweller won’t lift anyone’s spirits, but more concerningly, the Reds are two spots below the Angels, who had a sub-.400 winning percentage last year.

Major work must be done this offseason to elevate the Reds’ current roster

The AL West is no powerhouse. In fact, the Houston Astros had the worst winning percentage of any division winner in 2024 and would not have made the postseason if they were an NL squad. The Reds’ ranking below the A’s and Angels should set off alarm bells for the front office.

The Angels have already gotten the jump on the offseason, trading for Atlanta Braves slugger Jorge Soler and signing catcher Travis d'Arnaud. The A’s, meanwhile, have indicated that they aren’t quite ready for a pre-Sacramento fire sale, much to Cincinnati’s chagrin. Rather than pouting about the poor projections, the Reds should mold their offseason after these two clubs.

The Reds could take the Angels’ route by picking up a bit more pop in their lineup. Likely, that would have to come by way of a trade (like Los Angeles’s move to acquire Soler in exchange for Griffin Canning). Free agents, especially at the corner outfield spots, will simply be too expensive for a budget-minded club like Cincinnati. The Reds could use their surplus of right-handed pitching prospects to pull in a trade chip like Brandon Marsh, whose projected WAR in 2025 exceeds all Reds outfielders other than Spencer Steer.

Alternatively, the Reds could push the internal options to break out like the A’s outfielders did in 2025. Jeimer Candelario, for instance, needs to find the 3-plus fWAR form that earned him a three-year, $45 million contract, and Matt McLain needs a serious bounce-back year after losing 2024 to injury.

Fangraphs’ projections encourage some hope in one of those cases. McLain is predicted to contribute somewhere around 3.5 fWAR, but Candelario is sitting below 1.0 fWAR. This kind of production is unacceptable for the Reds’ highest paid player. If the team wishes to climb out of the bottom rungs of the league, Cincinnati needs to assess projected value against current payroll and make some not-so-tough choices.

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