Free agent outfielder contract estimates reveal why Reds should explore trade market

All signs point to this offseason being another record-breaking one in terms of contract values, and outfielders will be leading the way. Juan Soto, of course, is projected to receive one of the richest contracts in MLB history, but his fellow free agents won’t be slouches either. The rising price of talent does not bode well for the Cincinnati Reds.

The largest free-agent contracts the Reds have ever offered went to Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas prior to the 2020 season. Each signed a four-year, $64 million deal. At the time, Castellanos was a decent outfielder, good for 20-plus homers per year, but he had yet to make an All-Star Game and had only one 100 RBI season to his credit. 

Free agent prices are spiraling out of control, and the Reds can’t hope to compete

Now, he’s the prototype for a non-superstar, a benchmark against which this year’s crop of free agents will be judged. In other words, Castellanos’ current $20 million AAV deal has set a standard. It’s a standard that the Reds won’t be able to meet.

Anthony Santander, for example, is not quite a household name despite finishing second in the AL in homers. He would be a perfect addition to a questionable Reds outfield, and fans would love to see him hit dingers in Great American Ball Park. (If he had played every game at GABP in 2023, for example, he would have hit 42 home runs instead of 29.)

The problem is, he and Teoscar Hernández, another not-quite-superstar, will be entertaining multi-year deals surpassing $20 million AAV. Both players received qualifying offers from their respective teams, meaning that draft compensation is attached to their signing. But beyond those two, the quality of options on the free-agent market drops off significantly. The Reds could go after Jurickson Profar or Max Kepler, but Nick Krall and Co. would probably be better off looking at the trade market.

Trades in the offseason are not unheard of. In fact, the Atlanta Braves already swapped outfielder Jorge Soler to the Los Angeles Angels for starting pitcher Griffin Canning. If the Reds really want to supplement their existing outfield, they have a plethora of young talent that they could deal for the likes of Mike Yastrzemski or Brent Rooker, both of whom may be traded this winter.

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