Reds' shrinking prospect pipeline leaves no room for trade deadline mistakes

With the Cincinnati Reds reportedly set to sell at the trade deadline, the question is: how aggressive will they be? Their crop of veteran rentals is as good as gone, but that should just be the start.

The Reds have plenty of other attractive pieces with more team control, and they need to give serious consideration to who can be part of a brighter future and whose timeline doesn't align with the core of Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, and Chase Burns.

For better or worse, Cincinnati is a cash-strapped organization. Or, maybe better said, it is run like a cash-strapped organization. The Castellini family isn't going to authorize more spending, so having a flush pipeline of talent coming through the minor leagues is critical.

According to Baseball America's July update (subscription required), the Reds' farm system is in a bad way. Ranking 19th in the preseason rankings, Cincinnati's farm has fallen to 25th in the league.

They only have two top-100 prospects, Alfredo Duno (No. 51) and Edwin Arroyo (No. 81). Arroyo's on the verge of graduating and has been very underwhelming, making it basically Duno and a whole bunch of lottery tickets.

Baseball America points out a lack of high-end pitching depth in the upper levels of the minors. Again, graduations mean something here, but they're not wrong. Arguably, a greater issue is that the system's high-end position player talent is almost entirely concentrated at shortstop, and it's becoming an issue.

The Reds need to consider taking a different trade deadline path than the one they seem to be plotting

Rumblings have come out that Cincinnati is seeking to add controllable big leaguers while selling, which is a difficult needle to thread. Most teams that have controllable talent and would want to buy the veterans the Reds have to offer aren't parting with those controllable pieces unless they are disappointments.

Furthermore, the value of that control depends on how long it lasts. Getting a piece with two additional years or less of control back might not do very much for Cincinnati.

Instead, the Reds need to be looking at moving their own controllable players to restock the farm system. The veterans on expiring contracts might get them a few lottery tickets and boom-or-bust type prospects, but shipping off those guys alone won't bring back the kind of talent the farm system truly needs.

To that end, the club really needs to consider moving guys with real value. A player like Spencer Steer could fetch a nice haul. While he's on the IL with yet another blister injury, a pitcher like Nick Lodolo is another example. These are players who will eventually price themselves out of the Reds' budget and aren't quite integral enough to be considered untouchable the way someone like De La Cruz would be.

The bottom line is that the Reds are dead in the water if they don't have a farm system that can consistently feed the big league squad with talent. Unfortunately, that's exactly where things lie right now, and as a result, drastic action must be taken.

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