The Cincinnati Reds have their type when it comes to the MLB Draft. They love some college pitchers, and they're big on infielders, especially young, athletic shortstops.
Heading into last year's draft, the Reds previous first-round selection included four pitchers (three from the collegiate ranks, plus Hunter Greene as a high schooler), four infielders, one catcher (Tyler Stephenson), and one outfielder. They added another infielder last year, with uber-athletic shortstop Steele Hall getting snapped up.
That makes one outfielder in the first round over the past eleven years, with that player being a massive bust in Austin Hendrick. The pitching side of things is a different animal, but when it comes to position players, the idea has been to get athletes and move them around the diamond as needed later on.
While there's some logic there, it hasn't really worked out. The latest test case, Noelvi Marte, proves that the strategy isn't guaranteed to work.
With 91st percentile sprint speed and a cannon for an arm, Marte seemingly has all the tools to be successful on the grass, and we did see him make some spectacular plays after converting from third base to right field last season.
However, there's more to playing the outfield than athleticism. There's a certain degree of instinct, including reading the ball off the bat, taking a quick and correct first step, and running efficient routes that athleticism can partially mask but not eliminate completely.
The Reds' system is light on outfield depth and that can't continue
Cincinnati's No. 5 prospect, Hector Rodriguez, is a promising young outfielder who's torn it up in the minor leagues this season. While the Reds have some intriguing outfielders behind him, they're a collection of lower-level international free agent signings and later draft picks, who are much further away from the majors.
The Reds' outfield has been a revolving door this season, with minor league free agent signing JJ Bleday emerging as a gem, but many others serving as platoon pieces and other odds and ends without any true impact players. Bleday, mind you, was the fourth-overall pick of the 2019 draft, so he kind of proves the point that more premium investment is needed in the outfield.
The organization might be pivoting in the right direction, at least if you put credence into mock drafts. Jim Callis of MLB.com has them taking high school outfielder Trevor Condon, which, while nice, will take a long time to provide any sort of payoff.
The outfield has suffered from years upon years of underinvestment, so the strategy of drafting infielders and hoping to find them a home needs to change. Ideally, the Reds target a productive college outfielder with the 18th pick and then begin to operate with more balance moving forward.
