Reds have two promising paths forward with Nick Lodolo this offseason

Calling Nick Lodolo a "change of scenery" candidate is something of a misnomer. Sure, he's already one of the hottest names on the starting pitcher trade market due to his contract status (one year of team control remaining) and the fact that he's coming off a down year. But he's also had great success with the Cincinnati Reds in the recent past, including 2025 when he pitched to a 3.33 ERA over a career-high 156⅔ innings.

A disproportionate amount of his struggles stem from his injury issues, namely the blisters on his throwing hand that seemingly never go away. When healthy, he's proven to be an effective member of the rotation and, at times, outright dominant.

However, his looming trip to free agency in 2027 creates some urgency for the Reds. They don't have a ton of starting pitching depth -- at least not a ton that happens to be healthy at the moment -- but they could probably weather Lodolo's departure if the right offer came along.

So, the question we must ask ourselves is this: Should the Reds be the one to bet on Lodolo's bounce back, or should they thrust that burden upon another organization?

Reds' best path with Nick Lodolo may be to let the rest of the league decide what they should do

We've already discussed the dangers of selling low on talented players; no matter how the pitching market moves before and after the upcoming lockout, the Reds just aren't going to be able to get a huge haul for one year of Lodolo. His injury history, combined with the 4.97 ERA and 5.70 FIP he recorded over 21 starts this past season (which yielded -0.1 fWAR), has simply obliterated his perceived trade value.

Still, there will be contenders desperate for affordable pitching in an offseason where the dominant discussion is the economic future of the sport. Lodolo, having earned $4.725 million in 2026 and unfit for a huge raise after his complicated season, certainly fits the bill.

If you can convince other teams that the lanky left-hander has begun to finally move past his recurring blister issues -- he changed pitch grips mid-season in an effort to do so -- there's a reasonable chance that the Reds could extract some exciting young (and controllable) talent in a trade. It's a gambit the Milwaukee Brewers have pulled off repeatedly in recent years with stars like Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, and they're now representing the National League in the World Series.

Then again, if the Reds have aspirations of competing in 2027, they're almost certainly better off with Lodolo in tow. He struggled mightily down the stretch this time (5.93 FIP in September) but isn't far removed from his excellent 2025 season. With Hunter Greene already set to miss all of next year, it might be wiser to keep the rotation as intact as possible with the front office having to focus their efforts on rebuilding the offense this offseason.

In other words, both paths are equally valid. In effect, this may come down to the offers the Reds receive from other clubs. If something satisfying crosses Nick Krall's desk, it's possible that Lodolo could be pitching elsewhere next year.

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