Nick Lodolo could make or break the Reds’ 2027 rotation plans

Forecasting the Cincinnati Reds' 2027 roster is dangerous business. Who knows how the impending MLB lockout will impact team spending this coming offseason? One thing is for sure, however, the Reds will need to invest a good amount of their resources into the starting rotation.

Hunter Greene underwent Tommy John surgery last month and is expected to miss all of the 2027 season. Veteran pitcher Brady Singer will be a free agent this winter, and while some have predicted Cincinnati will extend a qualifying offer to the right-hander, the Reds are hardly in position to pay $23 million to a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

With 40% of this year's rotation unaccounted for heading into the offseason, the Reds will have to find ways to offset the losses. The biggest counterbalance, however, could already be on the roster.

Nick Lodolo will be entering his final year of team control, and while his 2026 campaign has been met with disappointment and injury, the Reds have no choice but to hope he bounces back in 2027. In fact, Cincinnati's rotation could hinge on Lodolo's performance.

Nick Lodolo's return to form will be key for the Reds' 2027 rotation

Lodolo went seven strong on Monday night against a fearsome Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. The Reds' lefty held his own and made it through seven innings. He allowed just three hits, but the four free passes helped LA rack up four runs while Lodolo was on the bump. He also struck out four batters.

This was Lodolo's seventh start since returning from the IL following a second bout with a blister on his left index finger. All told, Lodolo has a 6.09 ERA across those seven starts while logging 34 innings. His 18.8% strikeout rate during that span is very un-Lodolo-like. For his career, the former first-round pick has a 26.2% K-rate and a 6.7% walk-rate. That latter number has increased this season as well, and sits at a troublesome 9.7%.

Lodolo has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and he'll need to be the Reds' No. 2 starter in 2027. Obviously Chase Burns has turned into the team's ace, but Cincinnati needs Lodolo to return to the type of pitcher he was during his both his 2022 and 2025 seasons. Combining those two seasons, he went 13-15 with a 3.46 ERA and 287 strikeouts in 260 innings of work. That's the version of Lodolo the Reds need in 2027.

The Reds' lefty has been working on refining his breaking ball after changing his grip, and if that adjustment results in an ability to stay off the injured list — while also getting swing-and-miss — Cincinnati just might have something to work with heading into next season.

Lodolo settled for a one-year, $4.3 million contract through arbitration this season, and it's doubtful that number goes much above $6-$7 million in 2027. With Greene's $15.3 million salary effectively a sunk cost next season, the Reds need Lodolo to make up for that loss with the type of dominant season fans have seen the past.

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