Reds could make a costly mistake by chasing buy low trades

Now that it's abundantly clear that the Cincinnati Reds plan to shift their roster-building philosophy to target contact hitters and players capable of making well-rounded contributions to the roster, it's time for the front office to do some housecleaning.

Thanks to the impending lockout, it's probably not the best time to initiate a full-scale teardown, but the Reds would benefit from moving on from a number of incumbent players. That includes some under long-term deals like Ke'Bryan Hayes, and perhaps even those who are arbitration eligible, like Matt McLain.

The problem with that idea, however, is that none of the players in that bucket are coming off great seasons. Selling low is rarely advisable, and even a myriad of trades are unlikely to return the kind of talent that Reds fans are hoping for.

Reds' unfortunate organizational context may require patience from front office this offseason

Hayes (13 wRC+, -1.3 fWAR) and McLain (.608 OPS, 28% strikeout rate) are two of the most extreme examples on the roster, but there are a lot of players who hurt their reputation round the league in 2026.

Nick Lodolo (4.97 ERA, -0.1 fWAR) once again dealt with blister issues and other injuries that limited him to just 21 starts, and it's hard to envision other teams jumping at the chance to give up serious talent for a pitcher coming off the worst season of his career.

Ditto for Andrew Abbott, who followed up his All-Star campaign in 2025 with a subpar performance this year. Even Hunter Greene lost a lot of his luster, making only five starts before succumbing to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery and will likely cost him all of the 2027 season.

All of that might force president of baseball operations Nick Krall to invest in some buy-low options of his own, since selling low and buying high is the fastest possible ticket to irrelevancy in baseball.

At least in that regard Krall's proven relatively proficient, hitting on low-risk additions like Nathaniel Lowe, JJ Bleday, and Dane Myers just last year. The problem with that strategy is that the Reds will need him to increase the yield rate of that magic touch threefold if they want to field a competitive roster next season.

Suffice it to say, the Reds appear to be walking a razor-thin line heading into the offseason. Their best trade chips have seen a precipitous decline in their value. Cincinnati doesn't have the money to swing for the fences in free agency, nor the prospect infrastructure to make a blockbuster trade, and the organization has become somewhat reliant on bargain-bin additions emerging as key contributors.

With all of that as a backdrop, perhaps it's wiser for the Reds to stay the course, allowing the players already in-house to get healthy and rebuild some of their value before committing all the way to a certain direction.

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