Reds have new reason they must lock up Tyler Stephenson fast

Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson is in his walk-year. Once the 2026 season comes to a close, he'll be able to test free agency. That is, of course, unless the Reds sign Stephenson to a long-term extension before next winter.

This idea has been bandied about for some time now, and is oftentimes dismissed. There was a time when Stephenson was viewed as a key piece of the Reds' future, but he never really developed into the star that some fans were hoping for. Instead, he's become a steady presence in the Reds lineup and has improved his defensive skills by leaps and bounds.

Recently, however, Stephenson has unlocked a new skill — one that could be quite valuable and may have Cincinnati's leadership rethinking their stance on a long-term contract.

Tyler Stephenson's eye for ABS challenges could entice Reds to sign him

The ABS challenge system has helped teams level the playing field — both in the batter's box and behind the plate. Pitches that were once called balls may now be overturned and become strikes...if the catcher is correct in his estimation of the strike zone.

Baseball Savant has a wild new metric that helps measure the catcher's impact using ABS challenges. Of course, there are a myriad of ways to compute the effect on the outcome of a game using this new technology, but the simplest method is just to see how many times the call was overturned.

Stephenson is one of the best in the game when it comes to overturning balls to strikes. Heading into play on Thursday afternoon against the Chicago Cubs, Stephenson has a 72.7% success rate. He's correctly won 16 of 22 challenged calls. Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners), Dillon Dingler (Detroit Tigers), and Carson Kelly (Cubs) are among the best in the game, and are right 88% of the time or more.

There's one stat that Baseball Savant measures the net number of overturns more than expected by a player seeing identical pitches, and in his category, Stephenson (9.2) ranks near the top. Unfortunately, fellow backstop Jose Trevino is among the worst in this category (-1.5) and is 0-for-2 on the season when calling for an ABS challenge.

The Reds lack quality catching depth, and while fans have goo-goo eyes for top prospect Alfredo Duno, there's no guarantee he's going to stick behind the plate. And even if he does, it'll be at least two more years before he makes his way to the big leagues. Allowing Stephenson to walk this winter, especially in light of this new skill, could be a major mistake.

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