Tyler Stephenson's contract debate just got a lot harder for the Reds to avoid

Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson is heating up at the plate, and with his performance on the rise, questions about his long-term future with the team are surfacing once again. Despite his recent surge and history of being steady presence at one of the game's most demanding positions, the Reds have yet to commit to him beyond his current arbitration deal — leaving many to wonder, what’s the holdup?

Stephenson, 28, will be entering his final year of arbitration (Arb-3) and is on track to hit free agency after the 2026 season. That gives the Reds just one more year of team control before he becomes available to the highest bidder.

With each passing week, his value is growing, especially given his recent production. Over his last seven games, Stephenson has posted a .385/.467/.808 slash line with three home runs and seven RBI — numbers that leap off the page and suggest a steady and improving offensive contributor.

Reds could be playing with fire by not extending Tyler Stephenson

When healthy, Stephenson has consistently shown he can be an above-average bat for the position. And based on his current trajectory and market analytics, his projected value is estimated at seven years, $78.1 million — an average annual salary of just over $11.1 million. That would make him one of the top-paid catchers in the game, but not at the elite Buster Posey or J.T. Realmuto level. By MLB standards, where he currently ranks 157th overall and 6th among catchers, that seems like a fair and team-friendly projection.

So why the hesitation? It’s possible the Reds are taking a wait-and-see approach. Stephenson has dealt with injuries in past seasons, and the team may be wary of locking in long-term money for a player with some durability concerns. But in the current catching market — where the drop-off from a top-10 catcher to league-average is steep — the risk would more than likely be worth the reward when it comes to Stephenson.

With a young and talented core emerging in Cincinnati, retaining a stable veteran presence like Stephenson could pay dividends in the long run. Chemistry between pitchers and catchers takes time to build, and few players understand the Reds’ staff better than Stephenson.

If the Reds wait too long, they risk losing him to free agency just as he enters his prime. The bat is waking up, and the price tag may only go up from here.

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