Reds hesitation on Tyler Stephenson could cost them dearly

The Cincinnati Reds and Tyler Stephenson struggled to come to an agreement for his 2026 salary, and ultimately went to arbitration. The catcher won the hearing against the team and was awarded $6.8 million, but what's more telling is that Cincinnati let a paltry $250,000 gap get to that point. The hardline stance could foreshadow intentions to move in a different direction in 2027.

In the meantime, though, Stephenson is a big part of the club. Last year, he struggled with injuries and fans saw the maladies sap his overall production. His strikeout rate skyrocketed to 33.9%, but under the hood, the batted ball data was still encouraging, with a 98th percentile launch angle sweet spot rate, a 90th percentile barrel percentage, and an 84th percentile hard hit rate.

One has to imagine that with better injury luck, he'll easily return to the realm of one of the better offensive catchers in the league. Finding a catcher who can hit is not easy to find, and that makes the Reds' inaction all the more glaring.

The Reds dragging their feet on a Tyler Stephenson extension has put their future behind the dish in a precarious position

There's still a chance that the Reds could extend Stephenson, but as of now, it seems unlikely. Not only is there the potential that the arbitration tiff could have soured the relationship, but given the dearth of quality catchers, Stephenson has likely priced himself out of the Reds' budget moving forward.

Had the club acted earlier, it likely would've been able to secure the backstop for a couple more seasons at a discount, but now, just a year away from free agency, signing Stephenson would require paying market rates.

This wouldn't be a huge issue if the Reds had a successor waiting in the wings, but as things stand, they really don't. Top prospect Alfredo Duno has turned a lot of heads, but the youngster just turned 20 and finished a full season at Single-A Daytona after suffering injury setbacks in 2024. To believe in him as an option to take the reins next year is very optimistic.

Jose Trevino is under contract through 2027, and the Reds hold a club option for $6.5 million on him for 2028. He was an All-Star in 2022 and has a Platinum Glove on his résumé, but the 33-year-old last posted an OPS above .700 in 2020. He's a fine backup, but as a starter he'll struggle to hit enough to hold value.

This all puts the Reds between a rock and a hard place. Do they extend Stephenson at a price they aren't comfortable paying? Or do they roll the dice on Trevino and whatever other cheap alternative they can find to bridge the gap until Duno is ready? Neither option is incredibly appealing, and the club only has its own inaction to blame for the predicament it finds itself in.