Reds get Rhett Lowder back on track but his next step isn’t clear yet

The Cincinnati Reds will send Rhett Lowder on a rehab assignment this week. According to Cincinnati reporter Charlie Goldsmith, Lowder will begin his assignment in Arizona this Tuesday and will then head to Dayton. The right-hander has been sidelined since spring training with an elbow injury, and has slowly been working back into playing shape. But once Lowder is declared good to go, where will he land?

The Reds' bats may be rather quiet at the moment, but the pitching has been excellent. The Reds' pitching staff, as a whole, ranks fourth in hits allowed, seventh in walks, and 11th in ERA. The starting rotation, specifically, has been nails during the first 35 games of the season. Reds starters rank first in WHIP (1.10), second in batting average against (.218), fourth in strikeouts (189), and ninth in ERA (3.65).

Though a handful of Reds' starters have experienced shaky performances here and there, overall, Cincinnati's starting pitching has been lights out. As talented as Lowder may be, at the moment, there's no spot in the Reds starting rotation.

Rhett Lowder may be healthy, but his spot on the Reds roster is far from certain

Lowder's major league career began rather suddenly after a rash of injuries in 2024 thrust the former first-round pick onto the active roster. Lowder had just 22 minor league starts under his belt before being called up to the big leagues.

Once the right-hander arrived, however, he shined. Lowder was 2-2 in six starts with a minuscule 1.17 ERA over 30 ⅔ innings during the months of August and September. But if you dig into the numbers a little deeper, you'll find that Lowder was fortunate to escape disaster during his first taste of MLB action.

While Lowder's 1.17 ERA was quite impressive, his 4.34 xERA, 3.10 FIP, and 4.73 xFIP suggest that the rookie was more lucky than good. Lowder only struck out 17.2% of the batters he faced after posting a 25.3% strikeout rate in the minors. The 23-year-old also had very little command of his pitches, as evidenced by a 10.9% walk rate and 1.27 WHIP.

There's a lot to like about Lowder, and he'll undoubtedly be part of the Reds' plans at some point this season. But with the Reds' current crop of starters enjoying success, Wade Miley and Carson Spiers working their way back from injury, and Lowder's peripherals from last season, his most likely destination once he finishes his rehab assignment is a spot in the Louisville Bats' starting rotation.

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