Nick Lodolo's aggressive approach exposes what’s holding this Reds pitcher back

Since being drafted seventh overall in 2019 or perhaps even since being a competitive balance round pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2016, Nick Lodolo has been “the next big thing.” His career, though, has started slowly, and his promise hadn’t quite materialized… until now. Lodolo’s newfound success, which has made him one of the best lefties in the major leagues this season, starts with his ability to attack hitters early in the count.

Among pitchers who have faced at least 100 batters this season, Lodolo is tied for sixth in first pitch strike rate. That aggressive approach has enabled him to cut his walk rate to 3.5%, down from 7.8% over his first three seasons. He also ranks in the Top 10 among lefty starters in ERA and BABIP. Even when Lodolo doesn’t have his best stuff, he finds a way to win.

Reds starter Nick Lodolo is finding unprecedented success by attacking hitters early in the count

The aggressive mindset puts Lodolo in a great spot throughout the at-bat. When he is ahead in the count, opposing batters hit just .191 with a .319 slugging percentage. He has been in a three-ball count in just 16 plate appearances so far this season. Lodolo worked back to get the out in nine of those 16 situations.

If aggressiveness has enabled Lodolo to join Hunter Greene as a legitimate 1-2 punch in the Reds’ rotation, a lack of aggression could be to blame for the other Nick’s downfall. Nick Martinez, whose 2025 salary caused concerns before the 2025 season even began, has produced a -5 pitching run value over his first five starts. 

Martinez has thrown a first-pitch strike in just 57.4% of at-bats, down 10.3% from 2024, and opposing batters are hitting .333 and slugging .667 on those strikes. Players are also learning to lay off Martinez’s pitches outside the zone. His outside of zone swing rate has dropped by more than 5% since last year. Lodolo, on the other hand, has increased his outside of zone swing rate by almost 5%.

If the Reds hope to contend this season, they’ll need both Nicks to find their form. For once, it seems like the younger player could teach the crafty vet a few tricks.

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