This adjustment would shift Hunter Greene from surefire All-Star to Cy Young favorite

Even with a rough outing against the Baltimore Orioles his last time out, Hunter Greene is well on his way to the best season of his young career. He is among the best pitchers in the majors and could conceivably set a career high in strikeouts as well as a career low in walks. The Reds ace, though, could be even better with an expanded arsenal.

Greene’s four-seam fastball has become one of the premier pitches in baseball. The heater averages 99.3 mph and has produced a plus-4 run value so far in 2025. He pairs that pitch with a plus-slider that has a 51.3% whiff rate this season. Beyond those two pitches, Greene’s tools drop off significantly. A third quality pitch would transform him from an All-Star into a Cy Young contender.

Technically, Greene has a third pitch (and a fourth), but neither the splitter nor the curveball is consistent enough to be a trustworthy option if his fastball or slider has an off-day. In fact, Greene’s feel for the curve, which he added last season, has been so poor that he has thrown the pitch just twice and has yet to locate it for a strike (although he did induce a swinging strikeout on one of the two curves off the plate).

Reds starter Hunter Greene has two of the best pitches in baseball, but he needs a third

The split and the curveball replaced his changeup, which was a truly mediocre pitch with a 74 Stuff+ over two seasons. The splitter in particular shows promise, and the metrics point at an increased comfort with the pitch. Greene has increased the splitter’s Pitching+ by nearly 10 points from last year.

The results on the field, though, have been less impressive. Opposing hitters have a .333 batting average and a 1.000 slugging percentage on the pitch. The splitter was hit hard in 2024 as well with batters averaging .243 and slugging .405. Those numbers, though, reflect a bit of luck; the expected average and slugging percentage were .189 and .219, respectively.

All of Greene’s pitches are actually getting hit quite hard this season. Luck has just been on Greene’s side. The difference between opposing hitters’ wOBA and xwOBA in 2025 is 50 points in Greene’s favor, and his hard-hit rate is the bottom quarter of the league. Eventually, that luck will even out, and when that day comes, Greene will need to have a solid third pitch to outduel his competitors.

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