Reds finally see progress from struggling prospect but timing couldn’t be worse

By this point, Cincinnati Reds fans may have forgotten about Austin Hendrick. The 2020 first-round pick was once one of the club's most promising prospects — ranked No. 3 by MLB Pipeline back in 2021. That was a star-studded prospect class for the Reds, with the rest of the top five at that time consisting of Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Tyler Stephenson, and Jonathan India. It's rare to get so many quality big leaguers coming up through the system all at the same time.

To that end, Hendrick is the one who sticks out like a sore thumb. The Pennsylvania native was selected out of West Allegheny High School and was named perhaps the best power/hit combo of any high school hitter in his draft class by Baseball America.

That hasn't played out during his minor league tenure. Hendrick has struck out at least 32.5% of the time or more in every season he's played. He's displayed power at points, but he's largely been neutralized by his big whiff tendencies, and typically posted batting averages just above the Mendoza line.

Hendrick turns 25 on June 15 and has truly been stuck in the mud, starting his third straight season in Double-A. But this time, he might finally be proving he's conquered Chattanooga with a red-hot start that has him hitting .333/.387/.522 with three homers through 19 games.

The problem facing Hendrick now is that while he might finally be ready for the challenge of Triple-A, Louisville's outfield is chock full of talent with Blake Dunn, Hector Rodriguez, and Noelvi Marte all roaming the grass for the Bats — JJ Bleday was recently added to the Reds' active roster after Eugenio Suárez landed on the IL.

Reds' outfield logjam could force Austin Hendrick to wait

This isn't the first time fans have seen Hendrick get off to a hot start. Last year, he hit .286/.366/.486 over his first 11 games, but as the year went on, he cooled considerably, finishing with 14 homers, a .246/.322/422 line, and a 32.5% K-rate. It was an improvement over his career-worst .188/.243/.288 line with Chattanooga in 2024, but it still fell short of generating true excitement.

Given that, he'll need to prove that he can keep up this pace over the long-term in order to be worthy of a shot in Louisville, and then hopefully, the majors. The warning signs of a drop-off are already there. He's striking out 29.3% of the time so far, and a few more whiffs and he'll be back up in the danger zone with the wheels falling off.

Up in Louisville, Rodriguez's newfound plate discipline has ignited the 22-year-old and has him on the verge of a promotion. Meanwhile, the veteran Bleday had been even hotter, and could threaten to take the spot of the slumping Will Benson when Suárez returns from the IL.

On top of that, Marte's reset is going as well as the Reds could have hoped. That could have him forcing his way back to the bigs during the second half, if he doesn't turn into a trade chip first.

All of this is to say, an opportunity could arise for Hendrick to finally reach Triple-A by the second half of the year, and that's for the best. It will give him ample time to prove that he has truly conquered Double-A and turned the corner, and if that's the case, Cincinnati will find a way to give him a shot to salvage his career.

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