Reds face an ugly reality if Tyler Stephenson reaches free agency

Tyler Stephenson is the longest-tenured member of the Cincinnati Reds, but it's looking more and more like he's about to pass that title on to someone new. The 30-year-old is set to hit free agency for the first time in his career at season's end, and it seems like it's an opportunity that he's relishing.

“There’s the thought, for sure, that this is the last homestand,” Stephenson said via Charlie Goldsmith. “I was mentally prepared to say goodbye with all of the (trade) deadline stuff. Maybe not as emotional or anything like that because I thought I was already saying goodbye. It’s still bittersweet. I’m trying to enjoy each day I have here if it is my last.”

It seems as if the trade rumblings jump-started Stephenson's thinking at the deadline. It's understandable. It was an emotional time, and given the state of the catching market, it seemed as if the Reds were primed to cash in by dealing the veteran backstop. After seeing the haul the Baltimore Orioles received for Adley Rutschman, it's fair to wonder if Cincinnati missed the boat.

“It’s a huge accomplishment to get to this point in my career. I’m thankful to make it six years. Some people have said don’t panic. You’ll hear from some teams sometimes and then you won’t hear anything for a few weeks. They said everything can happen fast. Once offers do come, it usually happens fast,” Stephenson said while looking ahead.

Based on those comments, it sounds like Stephenson is looking for a big payday. Cay you blame him? At no point during his chat with reporters did he mention hoping to come back. Instead, it sounded like, "Thanks for the memories, farewell."

The Reds will need to pay up to retain Tyler Stephenson, and they absolutely should

While Cincinnati could theoretically come through with an 11th-hour extension, one that would have to properly reflect market value, the likely outcome is that Stephenson heads into free agency hoping to spark a bidding war.

He'll likely be the second-most-sought-after backstop behind Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers. With no shortage of teams in need of catching help, he'll surely generate tons of interest.

One of those teams that will need help behind the plate, shockingly, is the Reds. The internal options to replace Stephenson are not great. Jose Trevino is fine as a defensive-minded backup, even if he's overpaid in that role. Unfortunately, his bat, combined with some recent fragility, makes him a poor fit for a starting role.

The other options are bleaker. Will Banfield has had a solid year at Louisville, slashing .262/.309/.425 with 11 homers, but that's out of the norm for him, and he seems like the quintessential third catcher.

Then there's top prospect Alfredo Duno. The future is as bright as can be for the 20-year-old, but at that tender age and with just 32 games at the Double-A level, rushing him up to the bigs could be disastrous.

Stephenson is as solid as they come as a starting catcher. With the exception of 2023, when he slumped while recovering from shoulder surgery, he's posted wRC+ numbers better than league average every year of his career. Defensively, he has come a long way from a player who was rotated between first base and DH early in his career, and is an elite pitch blocker and superb at ABS challenges.

He's going to command a multi-year contract with an eight-figure annual salary. He's worth it, and the Reds should be aggressive and throw that sort of money at him so that he knows how valued he is here and lure him back. There's going to be a decent chunk of change coming off the books this winter, and using a good portion of it on retaining Stephenson is a must.

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