Reds could be stuck with a nightmare at catcher if Tyler Stephenson leaves

The Cincinnati Reds made the somewhat surprising decision to keep Tyler Stephenson at the trade deadline. It felt like a missed opportunity. There were more buyers in the catcher market than sellers after an injury to Shea Langeliers, and the Minnesota Twins' resurgence pulled some of the top-end options off the market.

Furthermore, the haul the Baltimore Orioles got for Adley Rutschman made it feel even more like the Reds missed a golden opportunity to cash in. However, there's a flip side to that coin.

Stephenson is a free-agent-to-be, and while it wouldn't have been impossible to re-sign him after dealing him at the deadline, it would have been significantly harder. Reuniting with the 30-year-old backstop has to be a priority for Cincinnati this offseason.

The Reds have Alfredo Duno waiting in the wings, and the 20-year-old phenom is single-handedly propping up their farm system, but rushing such a valuable asset to the bigs is a recipe for disaster. Duno is their crown jewel and must be treated as such.

Cincinnati has Jose Trevino under contract for another year (with a club option for 2028), but the glove-first veteran would be overmatched in the role of the unquestioned starter. Not only that, but a team like the Reds that struggles to score runs can't have a black hole in the lineup every day.

That means, if Cincinnati doesn't re-sign Stephenson, the club would have to go out on the free-agent market and find someone else. There aren't many options. Ryan Jeffers is having a fantastic season in Minnesota, and his .880 OPS has him set up for a nice payday. Look a little deeper, though, and you'll find that he's a .244/.329/.429 career hitter, which is arguably inferior to Stephenson's .259/.337/.426 career mark.

The next-best option would be Carson Kelly of the Chicago Cubs. The 32-year-old has been solid, but he's a couple of steps behind Jeffers and Stephenson in terms of impact. After him, well, the quality of the options available falls off a cliff.

The Reds need to re-sign Tyler Stephenson for more reasons than a simple lack of quality options

It might seem like Stephenson should be brought back simply because there's no other way the Reds could get a decent option at an affordable price point. That market reality is true, but it also sells him short.

One looks at Jeffers' sizzling bat this year and might think that he's turned a corner and leveled up beyond the point where Stephenson's talent lies, despite the similarities in their career numbers. However, that's not entirely true.

Jeffers missed nearly two months with a broken hamate bone, and while he's shown no ill effects since returning to action, he's been limited to 295 plate appearances this season. Stephenson's numbers pale in comparison because he got off to a such a miserable start to the year.

Over the first two months of the season, Stephenson produced a .199/.299/.326 line. However, since June 1, he's been hitting .286/.352/.495. That's very close to Jeffers' season line, and has come over a similar sample of 230 plate appearances.

Again, they're more similar offensively than many would have you believe. Now, defensively, many would consider Jeffers superior. That isn't exactly true, either. Jeffers is an above-average pitch blocker, below-average in controlling the running game, and about an average framer.

Stephenson is a superb pitch blocker, coming in with a 97th percentile performance. He's not great at cutting down runners on the basepaths or framing, but he has the hidden skill of being an ABS challenge wizard, which negates some of that framing deficiency.

Overall, Jeffers is going to command a top-of-the-market contract, while Stephenson likely settles for a more modest deal. That creates an intriguing value proposition for the Reds, who have no other options.

Re-signing Stephenson needs to be a top priority, and they must understand that they can always flip him for value once Duno is truly ready. Whiffing here would be catastrophic, as there's such a dearth of options beyond these two.

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