The Reds’ best offseason upgrade might already be in the clubhouse

The Cincinnati Reds have failed to make the big offseason move that the team appeared to desperately need; however, a shrewd trade at the deadline in 2025 could pay off more than a big-name signing would have. If the old adage that “defense wins championships” is true, Ke’Bryan Hayes may be the key to a return trip to the postseason.

In 2025, the Reds allowed 4.20 runs per game, 11th-best in the majors. That statistic, though, factors in both fielding and pitching. The Reds have one of the deepest and strongest starting rotations in baseball. Their fielders… not so much. Cincinnati had the 10th-worst fielding percentage in MLB last year and posted -2 defensive runs saved. That’s where Ke’Bryan Hayes comes in.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’ exceptional defense may be exactly what the Reds need to return to the postseason in 2026

Since his debut in 2020, Hayes has amassed a higher fielding run value than any other non-catcher. He’s so good on defense that it almost makes up for his awful performance at the plate. In a full season, Hayes can be expected to save nine runs above the average defender. 

Let’s imagine that the 2025 Reds had that full year of Hayes instead of the serviceable Santiago Espinal and the horrid Noelvi Marte at third base. The other Reds at the hot corner totaled -4 defensive runs saved. A swing in Cincinnati’s favor of 13 runs allowed over the course of the season shifts the club’s expected win-loss record to 87-75. Instead of squeaking into the playoffs, that’s a real contender for the division.

Now, that doesn’t take into consideration the liability that is Hayes’ bat. He contributed four runs less than an average player in 2025, but that lack of success is relatively new. As recently as 2023, Hayes put together a season with 1.8 offensive WAR.

Notably, that season also marked the beginning of his chronic back problems. Hayes made adjustments to manage the back issue during last offseason. With a full year of those adjustments under his belt, it’s possible we could see at least an average offensive season from Hayes in 2026.

Of course, it would be nice if the Reds get a little more pop in the lineup to balance out Hayes’ weaknesses, but I’ll take his glove any day of the week.