Red Sox pressure to trade Jarren Duran could tempt the Reds into a blockbuster gamble

The Cincinnati Reds need to make some bold moves this offseason if they hope to return to the playoffs in 2027. One such move would be acquire outfielder Jarren Duran whose arbitration number could push Boston Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow to make a trade.

Duran had a down-year in 2026, hitting just .207/.266/.361 with 20 home runs, 69 RBI, 21 stolen bases, and a 69 wRC+. His previous three years in Boston, however, saw him combine to post a .276/.339/.471 slash line with 45 homers, 199 RBI, 82 steals, and a 123 wRC+.

Because of Duran's previous success, he'll be in line to receive a pay raise next season. After taking home $7.7 million in 2026, MLB Trade Rumors expects the 30-year-old to land a deal worth $11.1 million in 2027.

That's quite the number for a player who took a back seat to fellow outfielders Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela in 2026. Were it not for Roman Anthony's prolonged hand injury, it's likely that Duran would've become little more than a bench bat for Red Sox manager Chad Tracy.

Duran is your prototypical 'change of scenery' candidate. Boston will be looking to get his salary off the books, and given how poorly he performed in 2026, it's unlikely that the cost to acquire him would be very high.

If the Reds believe Duran is fixable, he should certainly be on their radar this offseason. He's two years removed from being an MVP candidate, and he offers plenty of upside both defensively and on the basepaths.

But $11 million isn't a drop in the bucket for the cash-strapped Reds. Cincinnati shelled out $15 million to Eugenio Suárez in 2026 and didn't get what they paid for. They'd only be compounding their mistake by forking over an eight-figure salary and prospect capital in order to land Duran. Unless, of course, there was a mutually beneficial trade that would help clear some payroll from the Reds' books.

Trading Hunter Greene for Jarren Duran could be a win-win for the Reds and Red Sox

Reds starter Hunter Greene is set to miss the entire 2027 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Greene suffered an elbow injury in spring training that kept him out of action for three months. He then appeared in just five games before landing on the IL once again, and this time, it ended his season.

When he's healthy, Greene is a phenomenal talent. But it's the first three words of that previous sentence — when he's healthy — that have constantly alluded the Reds' fireballer throughout his career. There were whispers and trade rumors centered around Greene this past offseason, and those rumblings got even louder at this year's trade deadline.

The relationship between Greene and the Reds' front office can best be classified as complicated. There's been enough questionable reporting around the Reds' star to suggest that tension exists between the two parties. Local beat reporters have questioned Greene's durability in the past, and he's started just 50 games over the last three seasons combined (16.6 starts per year).

Add to all that the fact that Greene's salary increases from $8.3 million to $15.3 million, and you can see why Cincinnati may want to think about trading the right-hander this winter. That $15.3 is essentially a sunk cost in 2027, yet the Reds have a number of holes to fill if they hope to field a competitive team next season.

The Reds and Red Sox could essentially work out some of trade centered around Greene and Duran that would be a wash financially, but benefit both clubs in the long run. Cincinnati would be receiving an All-Star-caliber outfielder who's under team control for two more seasons, and Boston would be securing a top-of-the-rotation arm with two years (plus a team-option) left on his contract.

Is this deal risky? Yes, for both sides. If Duran fails to return to the player he was in 2024 (or even 2025), this is a huge miss on the part of the Reds. If Greene never fully recovers from elbow surgery and doesn't regain the zip on his fastball that made him one of the most feared pitchers in the league, it's a swing and a miss for the Red Sox.

But there's also the possibility that both players could find success with their new organizations. Duran could be that top-of-the-order bat the Reds need to set the table for Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. Greene could form a fierce 1-2 punch with Garrett Crochet atop the Red Sox rotation in 2028 and 2029.

Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall is under tremendous pressure to reload next year's roster while De La Cruz is still part of the organization. Greene will be of no help to the Reds in 2027, but Duran could be. This is the type of bold move the Reds need to make if they hope to make some noise next season. The question is, do they have the guts to do it?

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