Hunter Greene's injury puts Reds' 2027 payroll in the spotlight

Hunter Greene is likely to miss the 2027 season. The Cincinnati Reds right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month, and while an exact timetable hasn't been mapped out just yet, typical recovery ranges anywhere from 12-18 months.

But regardless of Greene's status for the 2027 season, his salary will count toward the team's total payroll. He's making just $8.3 million in 2026 as part of the six-year, $53 million contract extension he signed in 2023, but that number nearly doubles next season.

Greene will pocket $15.3 million in 2027, and that number jumps to $16.3 million in 2028. His contract also contains a $21 million club-option for the 2029 season, though his performance upon his return from the injured list will surely dictate whether or not the Reds exercise that option.

What does the Reds 2027 payroll look like with Hunter Greene out for the season?

Looking ahead to next season, only four players have guaranteed contracts for the 2027 campaign. Greene, Jose Trevino, Chase Burns, and Ke'Bryan Hayes are all under contract for next season. If Emilio Pagán exercises his player-option, that takes the number to five.

The total salary on the Reds' books for next season comes out to $40.32 million. But that's not the whole story. Unless Cincinnati is somehow able to offload Pierce Johnson via outright waivers, they'll owe the reliever a $1 million buyout.

Then comes the arbitration raises, and those are bound to be expensive. After qualifying for Super Two status last offseason, Matt McLain will enter his first official year of arbitration eligibility this offseason. So will Elly De La Cruz, Andrew Abbott, Noelvi Marte, and Dane Myers. Look for both De La Cruz and Abbott to be handsomely rewarded this winter.

Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams avoided arbitration and signed for $4.2 million last offseason. Gunnar Henderson might be a better comp for De La Cruz, and he signed a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Reds fans can probably expect their star shortstop to make somewhere in between those two numbers.

It's a little harder to find a comp for Abbott from last year's crop of first-year arb eligibles, but Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown's $5.7 million salary is probably a safe number. McLain will get a little bump from his $2.3 million salary as well, so it's not out of the realm of possibilities for those three players to collectively take home $15 million...maybe even a little more.

The Reds have several others who are arbitration eligible as well. JJ Bleday, Nick Lodolo, Spencer Steer, Tony Santillan, and Graham Ashcraft will all receive a bump in pay. Sam Moll, Brandon Williamson, and TJ Friedl are in line for a raise too, but there's a chance at least one of those players, if not all three, could be non-tendered this coming offseason.

So, taking all that into account, you're probably looking at about a little over $70 million, perhaps? Maybe $75 million if that aforementioned trio of fringe players are on the roster. If the Reds match this year's $128 million payroll, Cincinnati would then have between $50-$60 million to spend.

That seems like a good chunk of change until you realize that the Reds still have a number of holes on the roster — one of which is the spot in the rotation Greene won't be filling in 2027. If the Reds do the unthinkable and extend a qualifying offer to Brady Singer — something they've reportedly talked about — then you've effectively cut that number in half.

Don't forget the Reds still need to replace Tyler Stephenson behind the plate, find some form of offense at the hot corner to offset Hayes' inept bat, upgrade the outfield, backfill the bullpen, and add another starter (or two).

Greene's $15.3 million salary is all of the sudden a sunk cost, and it has a trickle-down effect that will cripple the roster heading into next season. Cincinnati's leadership will be forced to hunt for bargains once again this offseason, something the Reds' fanbase has gotten used to over the years.

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