Hunter Greene's surgery leaves Reds with no choice but to make drastic offseason move

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer revealed on Thursday that Hunter Greene underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week. The Cincinnati Reds starter is expected to 12-18 months, meaning he'll be sidelined for the entire 2027 season.

Greene has now undergone two elbow surgeries in less than six months. He missed three months earlier this season after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies.

The fireballer returned to the active roster early last month. In five starts, he posted a 6.83 ERA and 3.55 FIP across 27⅔ innings pitched. With Greene's 2026 season now over, this marks the third time in the last four seasons he's failed to cross 115 innings pitched.

The Reds were rumored to have had trade discussions with the Boston Red Sox prior to last week's deadline. According to sources, the Red Sox inquired about both Greene and Elly De La Cruz. Who knows what Boston's trade package for Greene would've looked like? Needless to say, whatever it was, there's no way the Reds are getting that now.

Regardless, that shouldn't stop the Reds from shopping Greene this coming offseason. Yeah, I said it, and I'll continue to say it. I don't care what type of return the Reds are able to get at this point in time. It's time for the Reds to trade Hunter Greene.

Reds need to bite the bullet and trade Hunter Greene — regardless of the return

Immediately there are going to be those who claim that Greene's un-tradable. And maybe they're right. But if I'm in Cincinnati's front office, I'm leaving no stone unturned this coming winter.

I don't care if it's the Los Angeles Dodgers — who wouldn't bat at eye sinking millions of dollars into Greene's salary while he rehabs next season. Or maybe the Athletics — they might want to find some star power for that new stadium in Las Vegas. Heck, call the Red Sox back; they obviously saw something they liked last week.

The point is, the relationship between Greene, the Reds front office, and the fanbase has become fractured. A number of local beat writers have floated Greene's name as a possible trade candidate for the better part of a year, and the constant rumors would suggest that there's some sort of rift between the pitcher and the front office/ coaching staff.

This past spring, Greene had some choice words for at least one local media member who the right-hander claimed defamed his character. Then there was the confusing statement from Reds manager Terry Francona that came to light after Greene underwent surgery this spring. The skipper claimed to know nothing about the elbow injury that Greene was battling through last September — one that required a PRP injection last fall.

But even if we step outside the realm of hurt feelings, miscommunication, and outright frustration, there's the actual baseball-side of things to consider. Greene's salary nearly doubles in 2027 and he's owed $15.3 million next season. That number increases to $16.3 million in 2028, and the contract contains a $21 million team-option for 2029.

The Reds will have to find a way to offset Greene's absence in 2027. There aren't too many talented pitchers at Triple-A who could take his spot in the rotation. Names like José Franco, Chase Petty, Jose Acuña, and Julian Aguiar don't exactly fit the bill.

That means the Reds would likely have to go outside the organization to find a supplemental arm, and that gets quite expensive. Even retreads and journeyman are making $8 million-plus per season. Dustin May ($12.5M), Tyler Mahle ($10M), Jose Quintana ($6M), and Michael Lorenzen ($8M) are some of the back-of-the-rotation starters who were signed last offseason.

So, in effect, the Reds would be paying, let's say, $8 million for a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher, plus another $15.3 million for Greene. In other words, the Reds will be shelling out about $23 million (maybe more) for a No. 4 starter. And that's on top of all the other needs this team has heading into the 2027 campaign.

One could make the argument that Cincinnati needs a starting catcher, maybe a second baseman, at least one (maybe two) starting outfielders, and reinforcements in the bullpen. The Reds will also lose Brady Singer this winter, meaning they'll have another spot in the rotation to fill.

With Eugenio Suárez's $15 million as well as the $15 million owed to Jeimer Candelario coming off the books, the Reds will have some extra money to toss around. Throw in the $19 million saved with both Singer and Tyler Stephenson entering free agency this offseason, and it's not as if Cincinnati will be strapped for cash.

But don't forget, in addition to all the aforementioned roster holes that will need to be filled, three of the Reds' most talented players will receive a raise. Chase Burns' $105 million extension kicks in ($2.5M), and both Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott will be eligible for arbitration for the first time. Those three players alone might account for $15 million-plus.

Emilio Pagán will add another $10 million to the payroll, Ke'Bryan Hayes is owed $8 million, and Jose Trevino will take home $5.25 million. JJ Bleday, Nick Lodolo, and Spencer Steer will all be eligible for raises through arbitration as well, which further complicates the Reds' payroll situation.

Now, to get back to my original point, the Reds need to trade Hunter Greene this offseason. Period! End of story! I don't care what the return looks like. It's not as if Greene had a clean track record before this latest surgery, so the return was never going to knock your socks off.

A return might be able to net you a team's top-five organizational prospect (and even then the Reds would probably have to send along some cash or maybe a prospect of their own). The receiving team would be assuming a lot of risk. But for Cincinnati, this as much about moving on from a distraction as it is getting some sort of value (or fiscal relief) for their starter. Even Greene's most ardent supporters have to admit that the relationship between the Reds and their former All-Star is strained.

But why would another team even attempt to trade for Greene this offseason knowing he's not going to pitch until 2028? Because his value is never going to be lower, and an opposing GM who knows what he's doing could get two years of Greene for a fraction of what he's worth on the open market. A big-market ball club like the Dodgers, Red Sox, or New York Yankees could see this is a long-term investment.

There is some precedent for this as well. The aforementioned Tyler Mahle signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the Texas Rangers in 2023 despite the fact he wouldn't be available to pitch in 2024. The Milwaukee Brewers signed Brandon Woodruff to a back-loaded deal in 2024 knowing he'd miss the entire season.

Teams put such a high priority on starting pitching nowadays that it's unthinkable to imagine 29 other teams passing on the chance to trade for Greene if the circumstances are correct.

Frankly, this is more about the Reds' willingness to actually make the move, not whether or not they can. It's time, Reds. Make the call, and move on.

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