Obscure loophole might allow Reds to profit off Rhett Lowder's success in 2026

Despite a talented young core of arms, the Cincinnati Reds are facing a lot of questions about their starting pitching depth this offseason.

Zack Littell and Nick Martinez are both likely to leave via free agency, and trade rumors regarding Hunter Greene have been as incessant as they are annoying. Add Chase Petty's disastrous 2025 campaign to the mix, and you've got a formula for a lot of front office anxiety.

Now, that's not to say there isn't talent to build around. Greene is still in the building, and Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, and Nick Lodolo are all overqualified as mid-rotation starters. Likewise, Chase Burns remains an option for the final rotation spot alongside Petty, and both have the prospect pedigree and raw stuff to emerge as MLB-caliber starters.

However, if there's going to be anyone who elevates this pitching staff to new heights, it's Rhett Lowder. The seventh-overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder missed the entire 2025 season with elbow and oblique injuries, making this offseason something of a make-or-break moment for him.

Well, I've got good news on that front. Not only is Lowder looking good in the Arizona Fall League, but a language loophole in the MLB rulebook will give the Reds every incentive to feature Lowder prominently in 2026.

Rhett Lowder could gift Reds PPI benefits thanks to MLB rookie rules

Most will remember that Lowder debuted in 2024 (to resounding success), pitching 30 2/3 innings down the stretch for the Reds in his first MLB cup of coffee.

However, thanks to Lowder spending the entirety of the 2025 season on the 60-day injured list (and, therefore, off the 40-man roster), he actually maintains his rookie eligibility heading into 2026.

MLB Rookie Thresholds
A player retains rookie status if he does not exceed the following:
130 career at-bats
50 career innings
45 career days on an active MLB roster

Lowder has never taken an at-bat in the major leagues, and he's only thrown those 30⅔ frames. Seeing as he made his MLB debut on August 30, 2024 (the 2024 regular season ended on Sept. 29), he also hasn't spent 45 days on an active roster.

Therefore, he remains eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive, which awards teams with a draft pick that tends to fall just after the first round and normally has an associated bonus pool slot.

So, if Lowder wins the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award, the Reds will earn a PPI pick after the first round of the 2027 draft. Likewise, if he finishes top three in Cy Young Award voting before becoming arbitration eligible, the Reds will get the same benefit the year after he places.

That's an incredible valuable pick (and bonus pool allotment) to get just for having a player on the roster, and the Reds will have every incentive to push Lowder to succeed in 2026 because of it. If the 23-year-old right-hander can continue shaking off his rust in the AFL, he could enter spring training next year with the inside track on a rotation spot.