Reds risk a rude awakening if this key free agent walks away this offseason

This upcoming offseason the Cincinnati Reds are set to lose upward of five players to free agency: Zack Littell, Miguel Andujar, Wade Miley, Emilio Pagán, and Nick Martinez.

Littell and Andujar were important trade deadline acquisitions — the former serving as a key piece of the rotation down the stretch, while the latter was arguably the team's best bat during the second half — and both could be brought back if the finances make sense.

Miley, an NL Central journeyman at this point, has only pitched 19 innings over the past two seasons due to injury and may be at the end of his impressive career. Meanwhile, Pagán recored a career-best 32 saves and a 2.88 ERA as the team's closer after taking over for Alexis Diaz early in the season, potentially pricing him out of the Reds' comfort zone.

Lastly, there's Martinez, who has been a certified "professional pitcher" since arriving in Cincinnati prior to the 2024 campaign. He's accrued 6.3 WAR while recording a 3.83 ERA in 308 frames in the Queen City, notably starting 42 games and making 40 appearances out of the bullpen. That kind of versatility and quality is exceedingly rare in today's game, and it's why Martinez is arguably the Reds' most important impending free agent.

Reds are risking a lot if Nick Martinez walks during free agency

At first glance, it may not seem that the Reds are desperate for pitching. Hunter Greene is the staff ace, Andrew Abbott is coming off an All-Star season, Nick Lodolo (when healthy) has shown flashes of sustained dominance, and Brady Singer looked the part of a No. 2 starter in his first year in Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, Chase Burns, Chase Petty, and Rhett Lowder represent a convincing core of youngsters to build around, even if injuries and/or underperformance has dimmed their respective profiles in recent years.

So, then, what's all the hoopla about Martinez? He's a solid veteran to be sure, but do the Reds really need him to remain competitive going forward? Well, yes. He was serviceable as a starter (4.72 ERA in 145 innings) and dominant as a reliever (2.61 ERA in 20⅔ innings) in 2025, a continuation of his performance from 2024 (3.84 ERA as a starter, 1.86 ERA as a reliever).

That alone presents a ton of value and versatility for manager Terry Francona while lining up his pitching staff, and it's worth keeping in mind that the 35-year-old Martinez covered the third-most innings on the team this year (165⅔). That's a lot of frames to replace, especially in the face of all the injuries the pitching staff dealt with in 2025.

Now, Martinez was the highest-paid member of the roster this season ($21.05 million via the qualifying offer), and his performance will surely dictate a similar salary on his next contract. However, his age and comfortability in Cincinnati could push a deal down to manageable levels for the Reds, especially if he's willing to accept a multi-year deal with a team option attached.

In either scenario, there's a good case to be made that the Reds should prioritize bringing Martinez back this offseason. It wouldn't be the most prudent move for a team that just get swept out of the the playoffs, but it's hard overstate the importance of stability for a team trying to get over the hump.