Latest comp for Reds top prospect Tyson Lewis will make fans extremely uneasy

The Cincinnati Reds have a type when it comes to the draft. In recent years, they have loved picking toolsy, athletic shortstops with the hopes that they'll stick somewhere around the diamond and develop into future stars.

One of the most anticipated prospects in this cohort is 2024 second-rounder Tyson Lewis. The Reds gave Lewis a signing bonus of just over $3 million, way above the slot value for his draft position. He didn't debut until 2025, and evaluators quickly began raving about his talent.

With his pro debut in the rearview, however, it's time to evaluate how he truly performed, and FanGraph's Eric Longenhagen had some concerning notes about Lewis in the newly released Reds prospect list.

FanGraphs drops a very concerning comp for Reds top prospect Tyson Lewis

Let's start with the good, because there is some. Longenhagen raves about Lewis's physical stature and raw power, also drawing attention to the real-life game power he produced. Longenhagen writes, "He (Lewis) hit multiple balls over 118 mph during the season and generated a 109-mph EV90, which was top 50 in all of pro baseball."

That might make you salivate. Lewis tore up the Arizona Complex League, batting .340/.396/.532 with six homers and 19 steals. That earned him a promotion to Single-A Daytona after just 46 games.

That's where the problems began, however. Longenhagen had this to say about Lewis' performance in Dayton, "Lewis’ strikeout rate exploded to 35.4% there, but he still hit for enough power to post an above-average overall batting line, at times cutting his stride completely in an effort to be on time. Lewis has great bat speed once his hands get moving, but he’s usually late, he doesn’t track pitches especially well, and he’s quite chase-prone."

Yikes. The performance led to FanGraphs' talent evaluator comparing the youngster to Cleveland Guardians shortstop Gabriel Arias because of his impressive physique, loud power, and massive swing-and-miss issues.

The 25-year-old Arias has logged 320 big league contests, recording a .215/.274/.356 line with a 33.3% strikeout rate and walking at just a 6.7% clip. Arias's 2025 line was almost identical to his career production, slashing .220/.274/.363 with a career-worst 34.4% strikeout rate. Arias' power has mostly been negated by his big swing-and-miss tendencies, launching just 25 homers in 1,034 career plate appearances.

It should be noted that Lewis struck at a higher-than-you'd-like but still reasonable 24.7% in the complex league. Still, it's very rare that a player with the whiff, chase, and strikeout numbers like Lewis had in A-Ball can overcome those deficiencies and become a productive player.

Lewis turns 20 on January 10, so he's still very young. It's far too early to write him off, but there's certainly reason to be concerned. He produced some truly thrilling moments in 2025, but it isn't unreasonable to say that 2026 could be a make-or-break year for him.

Lewis doesn't have to fix everything this upcoming season, but he does need to make significant strides to avoid confirming that the concerns are real and plunging into bust territory.