Ke’Bryan Hayes complicates the Reds path, but a past mistake still hurts far more

Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract is the kind of thing Cincinnati Reds fans want to be mad about, because it looks like the latest excuse for why they can’t go shopping. And yeah — paying real money for a glove-first third baseman on a team that desperately needs thump will always feel a little backwards.

But there’s a more uncomfortable truth: Hayes isn’t the problem. The Reds’ bigger issue is the financial crater left by Jeimer Candelario. That contract went from “finally, they spent” to “oh no, they spent like that.”

The Reds can live with Ke’Bryan Hayes, but Jeimer Candelario still haunts the books

Start with Hayes. Cincinnati brought him in because the hot corner is a place where rallies die when you can't complete routine plays. Hayes basically turns third base into a no-fly zone. He’s owed about $36 million from 2026–2029 (plus a 2030 option situation that includes a buyout), and the annual hit is in that manageable $7–8 million neighborhood. 

If you’re paying for something, pay for certainty. Hayes gives you that. The bat? It’s fine-to-frustrating, and it’s why the deal will never feel “fun”. Hayes hit .235 with a .596 OPS in 2025, and his career line is basically a .253 average with modest pop. So he doesn’t fix the Reds’ offense. He just keeps the defense from being the reason they lose.

Now let’s talk about what’s actually choking the offseason. Candelario was the biggest free-agent swing this franchise had taken in a while — three years, $45 million — and it faceplanted. Cincinnati designated him for assignment in June 2025, and the organization is still on the hook for roughly $16 million through next season, including a big chunk of 2026 salary and a buyout. That’s the kind of dead money that stings.

It’s happening at the worst possible time, because the Reds have already basically told you what the limits are. President of baseball operations Nick Krall has said the 2026 payroll should be around the same as 2025.  And 2025 finished in the rough $116–$119 million range depending on whose accounting you trust. 

So if you’re wondering why Cincinnati can’t just “add a real bat” or “swing a major trade,” look at the check they’re still writing to a guy who isn’t even on the roster. Hayes’ money is annoying, in theory. Candelario’s money is suffocating in practice.