This trade deadline mistake might haunt the Reds for years to come

With the 2025 campaign now in the books, it's time for the Cincinnati Reds to take a moment to reflect. There were many positives that came to light and can serve as building blocks for this young team. There were some negatives as well. And then, there's Ke'Bryan Hayes.

Hayes occupies both extremes, making him something of a conundrum moving forward. The polarization of each aspect in his game only serves to obfuscate his future value. After all, by defensive runs saved, he was the fourth best defender in the entire sport, regardless of position. On the other hand, by wRC+ he was the worst qualified hitter in the majors in 2025.

How do you square that jarring discrepancy and assign a value to it? Run prevention surely matters, and the Reds desperately needed to shore up the left side of the infield. In that regard, they couldn't have done better. Hayes is just that good with the glove. He's the best defensive third baseman in the game, and it isn't particularly close.

At the same time, Cincinnati needs to upgrade its offense. While the club finished 14th in runs scored, which is basically middle of the pack, it ranked 21st in slugging and home runs, 19th in batting average, and 24th in team wRC+. Hayes makes the team worse here, and not by an insignificant amount.

That extreme dichotomy makes his value, in a vacuum, incredibly difficult to square. If you compare him to Ryan McMahon, another third baseman moved at the trade deadline, you'll see a player who his slightly above average defensively and slightly below average with the bat for a total package that is approximately average.

Given the extremity of Hayes' strengths and weaknesses, can one say the same thing about him? It's tough to say. But then, once you add the context of the other pieces on the Reds roster, things only get more difficult.

The Reds' deadline deal for Ke'Bryan Hayes may have been a massive mistake

The ambiguity in Hayes' true value is one problem, but the bigger issue is how he impacts how the pieces of the Reds' roster fit together, not just in 2026, but also long-term.

The 28-year-old is halfway through an eight-year, $70 million extension he signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates at the start of the 2022 season. That means Cincinnati has him under contract through the 2029 season while also possessing a $12 million option for 2030 with a $6 million buy-out. That makes the remaining obligation four years for $30 million.

The first issue is whether or not he blocks top prospect Sal Stewart. The 21-year-old brings the thump the lineup desperately needs, but with Hayes blocking the hot corner, it creates a delicate balancing act to find at-bats for the youngster as well as Spencer Steer. The shuffle means either a worthy bat is on the bench most nights, or a defensive alignment that is suboptimal despite Hayes' hot corner brilliance.

The second issue is the contract itself. While $30 million isn't a ton of money, the dichotomy of Hayes' offensive and defensive value put him in a precarious spot. Hayes has a history of chronic back issues, which have typically been associated with at least partially responsible for his putrid offensive output. However, if the balky back were ever to impact his performance in the field, his overall value would quickly plummet.

You can justify paying roughly $8 million a season for a guy who is roughly an average player in the aggregate, but even a small downtick in defensive performance would send Hayes on a terrifying descent to worst player in baseball territory. For a club without a lot of payroll flexibility like the Reds, that is a potentially disastrous proposition.

How the Reds chose to build around these pieces for 2026 and beyond will be key, but as it stands now, the deal for Hayes has the potential to be a real blunder.

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