Ke'Bryan Hayes is finally giving the Reds glimpses, but the outlook remains bleak

Ke’Bryan Hayes flies in the face of conventional wisdom. He asks baseball fans and front offices alike, “Can elite defense make up for abysmal offense?” So far, Reds Country is probably saying, “Absolutely not.”

The Reds third baseman has a -0.4 bWAR, his career worst, and he’s reached base just 35 times in 68 games entering play on August 16. In short, he’s not just bad at the plate; he’s a non-entity. Fortunately, there is a sliver of hope that may help his long-term contract go down more smoothly.

When Hayes hit the IL with a bulging disc in May, he spent some time working with hitting coach Chris Valaika and made tweaks to his swing. Those adjustments seemed promising during his brief minor-league rehab when he hit .444/.450/.833 across two levels. That success hasn’t carried over the majors, but Hayes does seem to have a bit more pop and could be on the verge of turning the corner.

A few recent tweaks may be getting Ke’Bryan Hayes back to his baseline

MLB’s Statcast tools suggest that Hayes should be hitting much better than he is. Among players with at least 150 plate appearances this season, Hayes is the unluckiest. His xBA and xWOBA are 100 points higher than his actual rates, and his xSLG is nearly 150 points higher.

He’s squaring up the ball consistently, meaning he is returning the ball to play with at least 80% of the velocity of the pitch; when he makes contact, he squares it up 45.5% of the time, fourth best in the majors. So what’s the problem?

I wonder whether it could be related to the back injury that has sidelined Hayes for much of 2026 and has been a persistent issue in his career. His hard-hit rate is just 38.8%. Viewing that alongside his high squared-up rate, it essentially means that Hayes is incredibly efficient in redirecting the velocity of a pitch but not necessarily generating power on his own. A bad back could certainly affect the torque required to generate power.

That’s where the silver lining is in his recent play. Hayes is still grounding out quite a bit and not hitting the ball hard consistently, but his three homers since July 26 have all left the bat at 100 mph or more. They weren’t on particularly high-velocity pitches, either; each was about 92 mph.

If Hayes keeps this up, we could see the gap between his expected statistics and actual ones close, and the Reds may find themselves with at least a serviceable, rather than abominable, bat at third base.

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