Hunter Greene's injury leaves Reds with an ominous Ke'Bryan Hayes reality

The Cincinnati Reds will be without Hunter Greene for the remainder of the 2026 season, and in all likelihood, the 2027 campaign as well. Greene suffered damage to the UCL in his right elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery last week. Typical recovery is 12-18 months, so the soonest Reds fans should expect to see Greene back on the field is 2028.

But the Reds are still faced with the reality of how to navigate the 2027 season. Without Greene, a starting rotation of Nick Lodolo, Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson looks good enough on paper, but Cincinnati will almost certainly have to add at least one viable starter via free agency or a trade.

Prior to the trade deadline, reports emerged that Cincinnati might even consider extending a qualifying offer to Brady Singer. The right-hander is set to enter free agency after the season, and would be absolutely foolish to pass up the opportunity to sign the QO if the Reds presented it. For their part, the Reds would be foolish to even extend such an offer.

Regardless, of how the Reds augment their rotation next season, they'll be on the hook for Greene's $15.3 million salary. The fireballer is making just $8.3 this season, but his take-home pay nearly doubles in 2027, and he's owed another $16.3 million in 2028.

Unless the Reds trade Greene — something they should seriously consider — that $15.3 million is a sunk cost in 2027. Throw in the fact Cincinnati will have to find another suitable starting pitcher, and that's at least another $7 million-plus added to the Reds' payroll. If the Reds hand Singer a qualifying offer, you're talking about another $23 million.

In other words, the Reds could be spending anywhere from $16 million (assuming Greene's spot in the rotation is filled with a league-minimum prospect or pre-arbitration pitcher) to $38 million (if they extend Singer a QO).

Hunter Greene's absence almost guarantees Ke'Bryan Hayes will return to the Reds in 2027

That all but guarantees Ke'Bryan Hayes will be back with the Reds in 2027. The two-time Gold Glove Award-winner won't be in line for a third piece of hardware this offseason, but he's owed $8 million next season. Cincinnati isn't going to just part with that type of money so quickly, especially if they're shelling out $15.3 million for Greene to sit on the IL.

Hayes landed in Cincinnati last summer by way of an intra-division trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates. His defense has been as advertised, but unfortunately, so has his offense. The Reds were hoping a change of scenery and a more hitter-friendly ballpark would result in improvements at the plate. That has yet to happen, though Hayes has shown flashes since returning from the IL.

The Reds lack the ability to take large chunks of money already committed to next year's payroll and just cast it aside. Cincinnati is still paying Jeimer Candelario's salary this season after cutting him loose last year. They're unlikely to do that to Hayes while he still has three years still left on his deal.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow