Grading the Reds last 5 first-round draft picks

Every year as the MLB Draft rolls around, it's fun to look back on recent drafts to see just how well different organizations did with their first-round selections. So how have the Cincinnati Reds done over the past five years?

It's important to note that you have to get deep into a player's Major League career, or lack thereof, to give their respective front office a grade on the selection. However, we can still make formulated opinions on these picks based on how their young careers have progressed thus far and how they may project in the future.

Grading the Reds 2020 first-round draft pick: Austin Hendrick (12)

The bare minimum expectation for first round draft picks is that they make it to Double-A. Their tools as a draft prospect should be enough for them to comfortably advance through the lower levels of the minors, then it is up to the player's work ethic along with the effort of the player development department to get them through the upper levels. Fortunately for Austin Hendrick, he has reached the bare minimum threshold, but nothing much beyond that.

Hendrick was a prospect that came with a lot of risk in the 2020 class as a prep bat with some of the best raw power in the draft, but a lot of concern surrounding the hit tool. Those concerns have outweighed his power upside as he has consistently struck out more than 35% of the time at each of his stops in the minors thus far.

The only thing that keeps this pick from being an F is the fact that, in hindsight, this class has been among the worst. It was also a unique situation for players considering it was the COVID year and they weren't actually able to play any games until the following season. The good news is that Hendrick has cut down on striking out this year, and has set a career-high in wRC+ with Double-A Chattanooga.

Grade: D

Grading the Reds 2021 first-round draft pick: Matt McLain (17)

A college bat out of UCLA, Matt McLain made a fairly quick trip through the minors, debuting with the big league team within two years of being drafted. It was the exact trajectory you want to see from a first-round college hitter, and there weren't too many hiccups along the way.

Although 2025 hasn't yielded nearly the same results he saw in his rookie campaign, he is coming off of a shoulder injury that kept him out for the entirety of 2024. His rookie year in 2023 showed us he could have a very successful Major League career and potentially a few All-Star selections. He still has plenty of time left with the Reds to prove that.

The only knock on McLain is that he has pretty much become a second baseman after the expectation was that he would stick as a shortstop. That could be a different story if not for the presence of Elly De La Cruz, but the glove hasn't quite lived up to its expectations coming out of the draft.

Grade: B+

Grading the Reds 2022 first-round draft pick: Cam Collier (18)

Of the five players listed here, Cam Collier is by far the youngest. With that being said, it will still be a while before any legitimate opinions can be made about him being a first round selection. However, he has panned out well in his young career.

Collier was slated to be one of the top prep prospects in the 2023 draft class, but he ended up reclassifying for the 2022 class and was one of the youngest players in the class, clocking in at just 17 years old on draft day. There is a lot of risk with a player that young, but tremendous upside as well. It's safe to say he is trending closer to his ceiling than his floor thus far.

He struggled in his first year of full-season pro ball at Low-A Daytona where he posted just a 98 wRC+, something not uncommon for an 18 year old at Low-A regardless of draft status. The following year, he turned around and posted a 128 wRC+ for High-A Dayton with 20 home runs, really showcasing the power that made him special as a young prospect.

As stated earlier, Double-A is where a first round draft pick should end up before the pressure is really on. He's still only 20 years old and has dealt with injury thus far in 2025, so the remainder of this season along with the next two years will be huge in determining just how well Collier has pans out.

Grade: B

Grading the Reds 2023 first-round draft pick: Rhett Lowder (7)

It's hard not to give a player that debuted in the big leagues in the same year he debuted professionally anything lower than an A. However, when you get into the top ten picks, the success at the big league level becomes a lot more important when grading a draft pick. Lowder shot through the system as one of the top college arms to come from the 2023 draft class, but is still unproven for the most part in the majors.

Lowder's selection as the seventh-overall pick was interesting because he didn't quite come with the ceiling of a top ten pick, but also had arguably the highest floor among any pitcher in the class due to his advanced command and pitch-ability. The Reds definitely capitalized on taking Lowder where they did considering they also got him at a discount compared to the pick's value.

His 1.17 ERA across 30 ⅔ innings and six starts last year is quite impressive for a big league debut, but should be taken with a grain of salt. He only struck out 17.2% of the batters he faced while walking 10.9% of hitters along with a 4.34 xERA. That is why I still find him to be unproven along with the fact that he has yet to pitch in the majors again here in 2025 due to injury. It was an excellent selection by the Reds front office, but he needs to build up some more success before I can attach an A to him.

Grade: B+

Grading the Reds 2024 first-round draft pick: Chase Burns (2)

Chase Burns has followed nearly the same trajectory as Lowder which is why this pick earns a B+ as well. Like Lowder, Burns is a product of the Wake Forest pitching lab and debuted within a year of hearing his name called at the draft. The story is the same for Burns, he is still unproven, however, what he has shown at the professional level and his brief Major League stint has been nothing short of impressive.

Coming out of the draft, I actually didn't like this pick. I felt he came with too much reliever risk to earn him the second overall pick, and believed the Reds should have taken advantage of the strong crop of college bats. Regardless, they got Burns at a discount and immediately made him ace material, speaking to the front office's ability to identify and develop Major League tools.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Burns's short trip through the minors was the fact that he walked only 2.6% of the batters he faced in eight starts at Double-A. He's going to of course strike out a ton of hitters, but his ability to command the strike zone is what will make him a front of the line starter.

Whatever the Reds saw in him that made them comfortable enough to pass on the college bats in this class has certainly payed off. I have little doubt that I can come back to this at the end of the season and slap an A+ on this pick.

Grade: B+

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