Former Reds top draft pick showing signs of life, but still looks lightyears away

Cincinnati Reds fans are likely getting jealous as they watch top prospects, like the Kansas City Royals’ Jac Caglianone, fly from the draft to the bigs in less than a year. It’s been a slow burn for most of Cincinnati’s first-round picks with Matt McLain and Rhett Lowder being the only top picks of this decade to play a Major League game. However, Austin Hendrick, who once looked like a bust, might be finally salvaging his career.

The Reds drafted Hendrick out of high school in the 2020 MLB Draft. The outfielder had a sweet left-handed swing, and he was dubbed the 72nd best prospect in baseball prior to the 2021 season. The power never quite materialized, though, and his strikeout rate has prevented Hendrick from making strides in the minors.

Reds outfielder Austin Hendrick, once a top prospect, may finally be putting it all together

Coming off a season at Double-A that saw Hendrick produce a .188 average, he seems to have made a significant adjustment. Through 38 games, he has struck out just 40 times, reducing his strikeout rate more than 6% while increasing his walk rate by more than 4%. As a result, all of his offensive stats have improved.

There are signs, though, that this progress may be short lived. Many of these statistical improvements are a direct result of a seven-game hit streak in late May, during which he hit .400/.444/.520. Prior to that stretch, Hendrick was hitting .197/.308/.355. He’s also getting away from the power that drew scouts’ attention five years ago; his ground-ball rate has been steadily increasing over the past three seasons and now stands at 36.4%.

It’s likely that this flash of potential will be just enough for the Reds to imagine what could have been but not enough to propel Hendrick much further in the farm system. Cincinnati’s front office will be further upset to reflect upon the outfields it passed up for Hendrick, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Garrett Mitchell, both of whom are going to bedevil the NL Central for at least the next few years.

Perhaps Hendrick’s rocky path may dissuade the Reds from further prep picks. History hasn’t been kind to high schoolers. Jay Allen, for example, seems to have stalled at Double-A as well, and Jeter Downs is off playing in Japan. Promise, it seems, may not always be fulfilled.

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