3 Reds gambles that have huge payoff potential and even bigger consequences

All Major League Baseball organizations take risks. Unlike the big spenders, however, when a small-market club like the Cincinnati Reds take a leap of faith, they better make it count.

The Reds front office has made their fair share of gambles over the years. Some have worked out quite well while others have blown up in their faces. Such is the nature of the business.

But this season, the Reds need some of those big bets to pay major dividends. Cincinnati made some risky investments over the offseason, and if they pay off, the results could be season-altering. If those risks don't pay off, Cincy could be in a heap of trouble.

How will Ke'Bryan Hayes' bat perform in the Reds lineup?

Arguably the biggest risk the Reds made this offseason was actually made last summer — though the move has far-reaching implications. Cincinnati acquired third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for shortstop prospect Sammy Stafura and left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers.

In Hayes, the Reds got one of the best defenders at his position. He's now won back-to-back Gold Gloves at the hot corner and is poised to do so again in 2026. The problem, however, is Hayes' bat. After arriving in Cincinnati, his slash line improved slightly, but Hayes still only managed to post an underwhelming .656 OPS in 52 games with the Reds.

If Hayes can be anywhere close to the player he was in 2023 with the Pirates (.271/.309/.453), the Reds will be on cloud nine. But his injury history and a career OPS below .700 represent an obvious risk. He's also owed $30 million over the next four seasons, so if this doesn't work, there's no way Cincinnati will be able to offload that contract.

Reds closer Emilio Pagán has struggled to keep the ball in the park

Emilio Pagán took the closing duties away from Alexis Díaz in 2025 and went on post a career-high 32 saves. There was no way the Reds could just let him walk, and Cincinnati was able to re-sign him to a very team-friendly two-year, $20 million deal.

Pagán will be the Reds closer to open the 2026 season, but how long will that last? The right-hander was terrific last season, but his fatal flaw could haunt the Reds during the upcoming season.

Pagán is a fly ball pitcher; something that doesn't translate well when half your games are played at Great American Ball Park. His HR/FB was 10.8% last season, but for his career, that number is 12.5%. If Pagán can limit the big flies in key situations this season, the risk will pay off. If his HR/FB approaches the untenable 18.5% he posted in 2022, the Reds are in trouble.

Reds are banking on Matt McLain rebounding in 2026

Matt McLain's struggles in 2025 have been well documented. After missing all of the 2024 season due to a shoulder injury, he posted a paltry .220/.300/.343 slash line last season with a 77 wRC+.

But the Reds are willing to give McLain a second chance, and so far this spring, he's made the most of his opportunity. Cincinnati's coaching staff continues to show great faith in the former first-round pick, and through six Cactus League games he's hitting .647/.700/1.412 with a 403 wRC+. Those are spring training stats, so don't get too excited.

If McLain is able to return to the player he was during his rookie campaign in 2023 (.290/.357/.507 with a 129 wRC+), he could be in line for an All-Star season in 2026. If, however, he puts up stats similar to last year's disappointing numbers, the Reds will have to abandon ship quickly in order to salvage their season.