Cincinnati Reds’ Jesse Winker continues to struggle

The Cincinnati Reds hope that Jesse Winker can find his stroke as he gets use to the big leagues.

Jesse Winker had a solid spring, but the Cincinnati Reds optioned him to Triple-A to get consistent playing time.  When Scott Schebler injured his shoulder, the Reds decided it was time to give Winker an extended look.  Winker was leading the Louisville Bats in batting average at .314 when the Reds re-called him.  He also had an OBP of .395.  Combine those with his 22 doubles and he was looking great.

In the International League Winker was second in batting to Yandy Diaz of the Columbus Clippers.  His OBP was also second in the league when he was re-called.  This is while he tied for 26th in walks in the IL.

With those numbers set, the Reds thought that they would see a similar player in Cincinnati.  In the minors he walked and struck out in about equal numbers.  He also didn’t have any real power.

Over the course of his minor league career, Winker has batted .298 with a .398 OBP.  He struck out  about once every game and a half.  He also walked nearly as many times.

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For power, he averaged one home run every ten games.  That would make him a 16 home runs hitter in the MLB.  In the minors, the more he has moved up the less power he has shown.

So Winker should be a .300 hitter with an OBP around .390.  He should hit about 16 home runs.  That would mean scoring 75 to 100 runs a season.

So far, the Cincinnati Reds have not seen the expected output from Jesse Winker in his first MLB stretch.

Winker projects most similarly to Jason Heyward, when he started with the Atlanta Braves.  In Heyward’s first season he batted .277 with a .393 OBP in 142 games.  Heyward hit 18 home runs.

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In 21 games this season Winker is batting .236 with an OBP of .344.  He has a pair of home runs and a slugging percentage of .400.  He also has just three doubles so far.

Extrapolating that out to the Heyward 142,  Winker is on pace for 12 home runs and 21 doubles.  His batting average and doubles would need to go up to become the Winker that the Reds are expecting.

That is what the Reds are hoping will happen.

There is no reason to be starting him everyday if they aren’t trying to make him play more like his minor league self.  So the Reds keep sending him out there.

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This is a big play for the Reds.  They are trying to figure out which players will be on the team in 2018.  Right now, this version of Winker isn’t looking like a great option.