Yusei Kikuchi signing with Angels shows Reds must capitalize on pre-Juan Soto market

While the free agency dam hasn’t burst quite yet, the first crack has appeared in the form of Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $36 million deal with the LA Angels. The left-hander is the first big name to be taken off the market, and if the Cincinnati Reds hope to get in on the action, they’ll need to act fast.

Cincinnati has already had an active winter, hiring manager Terry Francona and trading for Brady Singer as a key rotation piece, but significant work remains. Kikuchi’s deal could provide the framework for the Reds to pursue a second-tier free agent. The newest Angels starter isn’t  a Corbin Burnes or Juan Soto, but he is the type of veteran presence the Reds could use on a young squad.

Reds could learn from Yusei Kikuchi's contract with LA Angels

Kikuchi is being rewarded for a stellar second half with the Astros, during which he posted a 2.70 ERA, but his career stats are less eye-popping. In other words, he’s the kind of player that can sometimes fall to smaller-market teams. (In fact, he reminds me of Frankie Montas, but let’s not talk about how that went for Cincy.)

A roughly $20 million AAV contract would be a big deal for the Reds. It would rank as the highest free-agent deal in club history, but Kikuchi’s deal seems to have set that as the new threshold for solid players who are lured to mediocre teams. If the Reds want to tempt Jurickson Profar or Tyler O’Neill, for example, they’ll have to more than match those free agents' projected offers from the Padres and Red Sox, respectively. Nonetheless, there exists a clear advantage before the bigger free agents sign, giving the Reds a lane to strike, even if they have to pay a little bit more than they're comfortable with.

Once the Soto sweepstakes takes place, an entirely new marketplace will emerge. Of course, no other free agent combines Soto’s youth, power, promise, and patience, but seeing Soto sign a $500 million (or more) contract could get any player or agent’s wheels turning.

The Reds won’t be able to compete when all the big fish turn their attention away from Soto to the rest of the market. Now is the time to make a move if any of the low- or mid-tier options truly interest them.