What would a Gavin Lux contract extension look like for Reds?

Gavin Lux has been a breath of fresh air for the Cincinnati Reds this season. An offseason trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers brought Lux to Cincinnati, and he's been one of the Reds' most consistent bats throughout the first month-plus of the 2025 season. If this trend continues, the Reds may want to think about keeping the 27-year-old in the Queen City beyond his arbitration window.

The Reds already signed one of their offseason acquisitions — Jose Trevino — to a contract extension. Perhaps it's time to consider doing the same for Lux. But what would a Gavin Lux contract extension look like, and should the Reds even think about keeping him based on his early-season success?

What would a Gavin Lux contract extension look like for Reds?

Unlike Trevino, who was slated to become a free agent after this season until he signed his new agreement with the Reds, Lux is under team control through the 2026 season. So there's no pressure for Cincinnati to get a deal done in the middle of this season. But if they assume Lux will continue to be a key contributor, and want him as part of their ball club beyond next season, the sooner they begin negotiations, the better.

When these questions arise, the first thing organizations (and the player's agent) do is find a comparable player who's signed to a long-term deal. A couple recently signed deals that come to mind are Ryan McMahon's six-year, $70 million pact with the Colorado Rockies, Jeff McNeil's four-year, $50 million extension with the New York Mets, and Nico Hoerner's three-year, $35 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. All three deals give these players an average annual value (AAV) of around $11 million to $12 million.

The Mariners' five-year deal for J.P. Crawford may be the best comp for Reds utility player Gavin Lux

But perhaps the most reasonable and best comp for what Lux would be worth is J.P Crawford's five-year, $51 million deal with the Seattle Mariners. The shortstop signed the extension in 2022 at the age of 26. Crawford appeared in just under 400 games at the time and was hitting .250/.331/.367 after his first four-plus seasons in the bigs.

Heading into the 2025 season, Lux has appeared in just over 400 games with a career slash line of .252/.326/.383. By comparison, Crawford's .691 OPS and 95 OPS+ were just slightly below Lux's .709 OPS and 96 OPS+.

Since Crawford signed his extension, the slick-fielding infielder has hit .243/.354/.390 with a 117 OPS+ and is very highly thought of for his patience and approach at the plate. Crawford and Lux consistently rank among the tops in MLB in walk rate, chase rate, and whiff rate. One of the biggest differences, however, between Crawford and Lux are the platoon splits. Crawford, like Lux, is better against right-handed pitching, but his career splits aren't so pronounced. That's a ding against Lux.

Taking under consideration Lux's deficiency against lefties and his injury history, the inflation over the past few seasons may be a wash. A five-year, $50 million deal might be the max Cincinnati would be willing to pay for Lux's services, and a four-year, $44 million contract extension might be easier to swallow. There's always contract incentives and team/ player options that could the deal worth more if Lux played above his career norms.

After seeing so many bad free agent contracts in recent years — Jeimer Candelario, Wil Myers, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, etc. — the Reds should shift their focus to rewarding those players who've been in their system and display the qualities they're looking for. Lux has been a stalwart performer since his arrival in Cincy, and the Reds would be wise to start thinking about a long-term deal.

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