Gavin Lux has been on fire, but Reds fans might not like what’s coming next

When the Cincinnati Reds traded for Gavin Lux, the prevailing wisdom was he would act as a useful utility player to plug holes in the field as the need arose. Few considered his bat to be plus, especially since he has only recorded a positive batting run value once in his career. So Lux’s offensive outburst to start the season has been greeted with fanfare, but underlying numbers may tamp down on the enthusiasm.

As of May 2, only Austin Wynn and Austin Hays have better on-base percentages and averages than Lux. He leads the team in doubles and walks and ranks third in RBI and hits. In short, Lux is doing a little bit of everything and is emerging as a team leader. However, signs point to an imminent regression.

Reds newcomer Gavin Lux's hot streak may be in jeopardy

Lux has been outperforming his expected statistics by a large margin this season. The difference between his actual batting average and his expected average, for example, is .047, the ninth-highest mark in the majors.

Part of this is due to his low barrel and hard-hit rates. Many of his hits don’t have the markers of success and fall in anyway. This discrepancy points to a regression for Lux. He hasn’t suddenly jumped from being a .252/.326/.383 career hitter to a .317/.410/.426 hitter, his stat line as of May 2.

When the regression comes, though, Lux will still be a valuable member of the Reds lineup. His expected batting average of .280 puts him in the top quarter of big leaguers. He leads the league in chase rate, and that plate discipline will go far on a team that relies on small ball.

Perhaps of greater concern is Lux’s poor defensive performance so far this year. His success rate as a left fielder is 10% below the estimated rate. Part of this can be attributed to the brutal sun during early afternoon games, but his greatest challenges are the result of his poor jumps on fly balls.

Since his knee surgery, Lux’s speed has declined precipitously. As a result he covers three fewer feet than average on his outfield attempts. This weak fielding has been covered up by his strong performances at the plate. However, if he regresses to his typical self, the Reds outfielder could be in trouble.

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