Upcoming Emilio Pagán decision might be harder than it should be for the Reds

When the Cincinnati Reds signed Emilio Pagán to a two-year deal during the 2023-24 offseason, it's doubtful that they viewed him as the team's closer. But after Alexis Díaz fell out of favor and was traded earlier this season, Cincinnati needed a reliable arm at the backend of the bullpen to close out games. Pagán stepped up and has been that guy for manager Terry Francona this season.

Pagán, however, will become a free agent after the season and one has wonder whether or not he'll be back in 2026. The right-hander has certainly earned the right to be part of next year's squad, but the market may push Pagán's price outside of the Reds' comfort zone.

Pagán has been an invaluable piece of the Reds roster this season, and the numbers back it up. He's is among the 90th percentile or higher in strikeout rate (29.8%) and expected batting average (.193). Pagán's also done a good job of limiting hard contact, gets plenty of swing-and-miss, and has a chase rate above 30%.

Emilio Pagán decision might be harder than it should be for the Reds

That's not the type of player that you just allow to waltz into free agency without even making an attempt to re-sign him. But Pagán isn't worthy of a qualifying offer (valued at over $21 million) and it's questionable whether or not his success is sustainable as he'll be entering his age 35 season in 2026.

It's difficult to see Pagán signing anything less than a two-year deal — he's earned that. His current two-year, $16 million pact would have to be the floor for any potential contract, and that might not be enough to keep him in Cincinnati. Blake Treinen, at age 36, signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter, and that's the same number the New York Mets paid to bring A.J. Minter to Queens.

What the Reds will have to wrestle with is whether or not Pagán is worth $10-plus million per season. That might be a tough sell with pitchers like Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft, and Luis Mey waiting in the wings. Santillan and Ashcraft are eligible for arbitration this coming offseason, meaning both hurlers will be due a raise.

In addition to Mey, the Reds also have young pitchers like Zach Maxwell and Connor Phillips who are ready to prove that they're ready for The Show. The likely price tag attached to Pagán, coupled with the up-and-coming talent, might be enough to push the Reds away from bringing back their closer next season.

Having a reliable closer is worth it's weight in gold, but the normally frugal Reds' ownership group is unlikely to pay the necessary price to keep Pagán around next season. If the right-hander is willing to sign a team-friendly deal — one that guarantees him the closer's role — then perhaps there's hope for a reunion. Otherwise, this could be Pagán's final run in a Reds uniform.

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