Terry Francona's toughest call yet may define Reds' playoff fate

In the first game of September, the Cincinnati Reds nearly did what they had for much of August: build a lead and then watch it dwindle as the bullpen took over. Thanks to clutch hitting by TJ Friedl and Noelvi Marte, though, the club was able to avoid an embarrassing loss.

Unfortunately, the pattern of late-game collapses has thrust Reds relievers Emilio Pagán and Tony Santillan into the spotlight, and manager Terry Francona’s use of the pair may determine the outcome of the Reds’ season.

For much of the season, Santillan and Pagán have operated in the traditional setup and closer role with the pair each pitching 53 innings in the eighth and ninth, respectively. Pagán, though, has been unusually volatile, blowing three saves and posting a 6.10 ERA since the start of August. Santillan, on the other hand, has a 2.13 ERA and seven holds (plus two losses) over that span. It may be time for Francona to make a big change at the back of the bullpen.

How Terry Francona handles the closer role may seal the Reds’ playoff destiny

Pagán is heading into free agency, after all, and if the Reds fail to re-sign him, they need to have a closer waiting in the wings. Santillan seems to be a natural fit considering he leads all qualified Reds relievers in ERA, left-on-base rate, and innings pitched.

The problem is Santillan doesn’t have that much experience in a high-leverage role; he only has 236 such plate appearances under his belt and nearly half of those have come this season.

Giving Santillan more closer opportunities in the waning weeks of the season would not only benefit him by offering crucial experience, it would also help the team in its pursuit of a playoff spot. According to Fangraphs’ model, Santillan has 1.63 WPA (win probably added) while Pagán has just 0.37. Since the beginning of August, Pagán has actually been a liability, contributing -0.76 WPA.

The Reds’ closer situation is perhaps murkier than it has been in years. Zach Maxwell made his MLB debut last month but wasn’t the go-to for pitching help when September call-ups rolled around. Scott Barlow, though an immensely productive reliever this season, hasn’t been a closer in years. Santillan seems like the obvious choice for next year’s closer spot, but it wouldn’t hurt the Reds if they gave him the role prematurely.

More Cincinnati Reds News and Rumors