Terry Francona may have just doomed Reds playoff chances with one move

An off day is usually a welcome relief for players and managers alike. The 162-game season is a grueling task, and the next six games – three against the hapless Pirates and three against the playoff-bound Brewers – will determine the Reds’ postseason fate.

A well-rested team could be the difference between success and failure. However, the off day has also thrown a wrench into the rhythm of the Reds’ rotation, and how manager Terry Francona handles the staff may be just as fateful.

According to Reds beat writer Mark Sheldon, Francona intends to keep the rotation in its established order. That means that Brady Singer will kick off the series against Pittsburgh and get a second start in the season finale in Milwaukee. Singer has been no slouch this year, but Hunter Greene is the team’s ace. By doubling down on routine, Francona could be pulling a start from their hottest pitcher.

Terry Francona’s decision could prioritize Brady Singer over Hunter Greene

It’s not that Singer is a bad choice. Since the beginning of August, he’s 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA. He’s also at his most effective on five days’ rest, which will be the case when he takes the ball against the Pirates. But Greene is the one coming off an emphatic one-hitter, and he's the one with the best track record against NL Central rivals. (Singer has a 6.29 ERA against Pittsburgh, for example, while Greene boasts a 2.51 mark.)

Perhaps Francona is thinking more about the pitching matchup than about the offense and the hot hand. With Singer starting the series, Greene pulls a matchup with Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes. The Reds’ offense has been streaky of late, scoring one run or being shut out in four of the past 10 games. If Cincinnati can’t crack Skenes, the team will need a shutdown performance from the starter, and Greene may be the pitcher most capable of that feat.

Perhaps the logic is that they want to use Greene in Game 1 of a hypothetical postseason series ... but they have to get there first.

A lot hinges on these next six games. The Reds’ rotation will be put to the test. Can they stifle the Brewers, who hold the best team batting average in the National League? Will their focus slip against the Pirates, who have the worst batting average in the NL? Either way, Francona’s decision-making will come under scrutiny, and the fate of the 2025 Reds will become clear.