Terry Francona's magic has its limits as Reds stare down tough reality in 2026

Everyone around the Cincinnati Reds organization raves about manager Terry Francona. With 2,033 wins (and more to come), two World Series rings, and three Manager of the Year awards, Cooperstown is likely in his future.

Reds utility player Gavin Lux summed it up well, “He’s got some magic in him. You really feel he believes in everybody and he believes in our group. And he’s been preaching since Day 1 about being gritty and playing hard. And I think we’ve done a good job on that. We take after our manager."

After dismissing David Bell last year, a week before the end of the regular season, and despite giving him an extension a year prior, the Reds couldn't have picked a better leader to mold and inspire their young club than the man affectionately known as Tito.

Francona skillfully managed the personalities, pushed the right buttons in the lineup and the bullpen, and rode his strong rotation to success. Still, despite all of that, the Reds just barely squeaked into the postseason with an 83-79 record and were quickly dismissed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the minimum two games of the NLWCS.

Simply put, for Cincinnati to take the next step, they'll need more than Francona's magic to take the next step and emerge as serious contenders, the type to be reckoned with come October.

Terry Francona is going to need more help from Reds ownership if the club is going to take the next step

Cincinnati boasted the ninth-best rotation ERA in baseball with a 3.85 mark. The bullpen was a little less stout, but still respectable with a 3.89 ERA that ranked 14th. However, the offensive side of the ball left much to be desired.

The Reds finished 14th in runs scored (716), but ranked 19th in batting average (.245), 16th in on-base percentage (.315), 21st in slugging (.391) and home runs (167), and 24th in team wRC+ (92). In a way, it's kind of miraculous that they scored as many runs as they did.

The club will hopefully get some internal improvements. They'll likely have a full year of Sal Stewart in the lineup. Steps from budding young stars like Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte will help, too. Still, a lot of marginal at best, downright bad at worst offensive performers exist, like Matt McLain, who may or may not bounce back, and Ke'Bryan Hayes, who certainly won't.

To truly make the leap offensively and arrive as a serious contender in a fearsome National League, the Reds will need to bring in help from the outside. The question is, will Bob Castellini open up the checkbook and give Nick Krall and Brad Meador the ammunition they need to make the necessary improvements?

In terms of 2025 total payroll obligations, Cincinnati sits 23rd out of the 30 MLB teams with $119,523,192 in spending. Looking at the breakdown between the pitching staff and the position players on Cincinnati's 28-man September roster, it makes sense that the pitching is ahead of the hitting.

Cincinnati pitchers combined for $61.8 million in salary, while the position player group accounted for just $33.6 million. However, the bulk of that pitching staff salary came from just two players, Nick Martinez, who signed the $21.05 million qualifying offer last offseason, and Emilio Pagan, who made $8.75 million. Both hurlers are impending free agents and will need to either be retained or replaced.

The club can move on from Wade Miley and Zack Littell, but the savings from those players will be mostly offset by arbitration raises and the somewhat onerous contract they inherited when they traded for Ke'Bryan Hayes. Remember, too, that they'll still be carrying the dead money left over from Jeimer Candelario's contract.

With all of that, Cincinnati will need a couple of impact bats, possibly a new closer, and some reinforcements around the fringes at minimum. As it stands now, it doesn't seem like the projected payroll for 2026 will be all that much less than it was in 2025, and that's with them standing pat.

To adequately fill those holes and actually improve the roster, the Reds will need to spend more than they did in 2025. Significantly so. While a move like bringing Kyle Schwarber home to Cincinnati would be a fan's dream, spreading the love around over spending it all on one gargantuan contract is probably the more prudent approach.

At the end of the day, though, all roads lead to more spending being necessary for the Reds to reach the next level. There are only so many rabbits Francona can pull out of his hat, after all.