Terry Francona’s latest comments hit a little too close to home for Reds fans

The Cincinnati Reds are in a tough position this offseason. The club seems poised to take the next step after a magical run to secure the final NL Wildcard spot, just to run into the buzzsaw known as the Los Angeles Dodgers.

As good as 2025 was, the Reds face the prospect of regressing in 2026 as their rivals gear up this winter. Cincinnati can't stay stagnant. Additional offensive firepower is a must. In addition to figuring out whether reuniting with Emilio Pagán or turning elsewhere to close out games is their best bet, the club needs to shore up the middle of the bullpen as well.

Unlike most of their peers, the Reds won't have much wiggle room in the budget to address these issues. That in and of itself is an issue, but as Terry Francona pointed out during his appearance on the Pitch and Moan Podcast, there's another problem that Cincinnati must contend with.

Francona said, you "can't outspend your mistakes," which, while true for most clubs, cuts even deeper for the Reds. If 2025's payroll of $119 million is the number, the Reds are already nearly at that mark once arbitration raises and pre-arb player salaries are factored in.

There are some ways they can free up space. Non-tendering under-performers like Sam Moll are a must. Making tough choices like cutting ties with Gavin Lux will have to happen. Even then, freeing space with non-tenders and trades will still have the club working with a razor-thin margin.

Terry Francona calls out a key Reds' issue that cannot be repeated — wasting money on a player like Jeimer Candelario

They can't afford any mistakes because one is already on their books. The Reds will be carrying $15 million of dead money on their books in 2026 thanks to the bust that was Jeimer Candelario's contract. The contract was a gamble at the time, and blew up big time in Cincinnati's face as all they have to show for their $45 million outlay is 134 games of a 66 OPS+ at the plate.

Mercifully, that deal comes off the books after next season, but $15 million could sure solve a lot of problems right now. Not only do the Reds need to be careful with what they do with their limited funds in the context of contending in 2026, but they also need to be careful to avoid giving out another multi-year deal that blows up in their face.

Some teams can throw good money after bad to an extent, but no matter who you are, it will eventually catch up with you.

The New York Yankees, for example, had $10 million in dead money due to Aaron Hicks on their books in 2025, as well as pseudo dead money in the form of the $18 million they paid Marcus Stroman to eventually DFA him after the trade deadline, as well as the $15 million they shelled out to DJ LeMahieu to have him meet the same fate.

While the Yankees have much deeper pockets than the Reds, those mistakes kept them from addressing their hole at third base last offseason, necessitating a desperation trade for Ryan McMahon at the deadline.

Those three players totaled $43 million in wasted money for New York, which hurt them, but represents over a third of the Reds' 2025 payroll. Spending unwisely to that degree would cripple a club like Cincinnati even more than Candelario's contract has put a damper on their ability to upgrade the roster this winter.

Almost more important than bringing in players who can have an outsized impact on the Reds' 2026 playoff hopes, Nick Krall and Brad Meador need to be prudent in order to avoid jeopardizing 2027 and beyond as well. Such is life with a shoestring budget.