Terry Francona's Jose Trevino observation reveals key Reds offseason need

When Cincinnati Reds fans think about Jose Trevino, offensive powerhouse isn't the first phrase that comes to mind. The veteran catcher has a lot of merits, but even during his All-Star season with the New York Yankees in 2022 his wRC+ was 90 and the majority of his value came from his work behind the plate.

So when Trevino stepped to the plate in the bottom of the eighth against the San Diego Padres on September 1, there were questions. With the game tied 2-2, the Padres intentionally walked Matt McLain, preferring to face Trevino with nasty lefty Adrian Morejon, owner of a 99.5 mph sinker, on the mound. Terry Francona was about to be destroyed for the decision to leave Trevino in the game rather than pinch hit with Tyler Stephenson.

But Trevino delivered a single to center to give Cincinnati a 3-2 edge. The club tacked on another run and took home the victory. After the game, Francona let everyone know that he knew what he was doing.

"[Trevino] can get to velocity. That guy for them was throwing 98-99. I also know that he can hit into a double play, but we had Brito behind him if he didn't drive him in. He had a really good at-bat, and then so did Brito," Francona said after the game.

Trevino is really good against pitches of 95 mph or better. Against such pitches, he's hitting .269 with a .615 slugging percentage. It makes you wonder where that force is the rest of the time.

Unfortunately, Trevino's an outlier on the Reds' roster. The team has ranked at the bottom of the league in all key offensive metrics against those 95 mph-plus offerings.

Terry Francona's bold Jose Trevino decision reveals a key flaw the Reds must fix in the offseason

Theoretically, the Reds shouldn't be this bad against high-octane offerings. The bat tracking metrics show that they have what it takes to catch up to high-end velo. Cincinnati ranks 12th in the majors in average bat speed at 72.3 mph. The team ranks 15th in swing length, so they're relatively quick to the ball. Finally, the Reds are fourth in ideal attack angle percentage at 54%.

So they have enough bat speed, aren't overly loopy in their swings, and attack the ball at angles that are conducive to offensive production more often than not. It would seem then that they should be good against fastballs, which are the most common offerings they face.

This could be a coaching issue, and as we've discussed before, the time to move on from Chris Valaika is now. But that's just the start. The Reds clearly have players who can handle this kind of heat. Sal Stewart has posted a run value of 12 against heaters. Elly De La Cruz checks in at nine, as does Eugenio Suarez.

But there are also far too many hitters who are struggling. Tyler Stephenson has a -1 run value against fastballs. Matt McLain comes in at -5. TJ Friedl has posted a -7 mark. Edwin Arroyo tips the scales at -4.

The greatness of the few is outweighed by the ineptitude of the many. So, in addition to a new voice for the hitters to have in their ears, an archetype that the Reds need to acquire has become clear. They need to prioritize good fastball hitters this offseason; otherwise, they will once again find themselves lagging behind offensively in 2027.

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