Reds might already regret Yankees trade as bullpen issues pile up

When the Cincinnati Reds traded Fernando Cruz to the New York Yankees for Jose Trevino, the headlines read "Reds land All-Star catcher." Technically, that was true, but it was an outlier (and still subpar) season with the bat and the defensive performance of his life that garnered Trevino that honor.

In reality, the exchange was one of spare parts -- a reliever with strikeout stuff and a propensity for walks being swapped for a glove-first backup catcher.

There was another small detail in the deal as well. The Yankees were eager to shave some costs, swapping Trevino's $3.425 salary in exchange for a late-bloomer in Cruz, who made just $785,000 as a pre-arb player, despite entering his age-35 season. The $2.64 million difference doesn't sound like a lot, but for Cincinnati, every dollar counts.

While Trevino is a serviceable backup catcher, given the bullpen's struggles this season, the Reds might find themselves looking longingly at Cruz, who has turned into a reliable late-inning reliever in New York.

Reds' rapidly declining bullpen would look better with Fernando Cruz

Cincinnati's pen started out the year red hot, leading the league with a 2.31 ERA as of April 19. However, the very same unit has fallen off a cliff of late, and has become one of the worst bullpen's in the majors.

The Reds' relief corps recently took a hit with Emilio Pagán hitting the IL with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Pagán had been struggling to the tune of a 6.43 ERA, but as one of the most experienced hurlers in relief, he was a safer bet to bounce back than most.

Cruz, meanwhile, is in his second season of enjoying success as a Yankee. He left the Queen City having pitched in parts of three seasons from 2022 through 2024. In that time, he put up a 4.52 ERA, which made him seem like an extraneous piece rather than a bullpen building block.

However, some of Cruz's struggles in a Reds uniform can be chalked up to bad luck. Over that span, he posted a left on-base rate of just 67%, which is well below the league average, which inches close to a 75% mark. That's a big reason why his underlying metrics like FIP (3.07) and xFIP (3.14) were well out of whack with his actual production, suggesting he'd been better than it appeared.

His first season with the Yankees saw him find solid success, with a 3.56 ERA over 48 innings, while his LOB% stabilized at 73.6%. As the year went on and ex-Reds pitcher Luke Weaver, along with former Milwaukee Brewers reliever Devin Williams, struggled, Cruz found himself in more and more high-leverage situations.

He's been even better this season, striking out over 30% of batters he's faced in large part due to his electric splitter. His LOB% this time around is an unsustainably high 94.1%, but even when it regresses to the mean, he'll likely be producing at a rate similar to last season.

Having a guy like that who can rack up the Ks and handle the seventh or eighth inning would be a blessing for the Reds right about now, and would provide much more value than a defensive-minded backup catcher.

Chalk this one up as an error in evaluation. The Reds thought they were getting a steal with a former All-Star and borderline starting catcher, and instead found themselves with a player whose biggest strength, pitch framing, has been semi-neutralized by the new ABS system, and whose bat has deteriorated to the point of no value. All the while, they gave up a player who fits exactly what they need right about now.

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