Teoscar Hernández fits the Reds' needs, but their Dodgers trade history looms large

The Cincinnati Reds need help, and a lot of it. The Los Angeles Dodgers, meanwhile, in their quest to get younger and create space in the starting lineup for top prospect Josue De Paula, are discussing trading veteran outfielder Teoscar Hernández. Seems like a match made in Heaven, right?

From a fit standpoint, you could certainly argue that both sides should be motivated to get a deal done. The Dodgers have a parade of top outfield prospects coming up through their pipeline, and need to make room for them somehow.

With Andy Pages in center field and Kyle Tucker in right, moving Hernández this winter makes the most sense. The Reds, meanwhile, a team that ranked dead-last in wRC+ (91) this year and mustered a meager .717 OPS against left-handed pitching, would benefit greatly from adding a slugger like Hernández who posted a 110 wRC+ in 2026 and owns a career .882 OPS against southpaws.

Hernández is 34 years old and heading into the final guaranteed year of his contract — $14.5 million base, $8 million deferred — he shouldn't cost much in the way of prospect capital, which should be music to Cincinnati's ears given the current state of the farm system.

But a look back at some recent trade history between these two franchises might give the Reds cause to pause before pulling the trigger on a deal with the Dodgers for Hernández.

Reds can't let Dodgers outmaneuver them again in pursuit of Teoscar Hernández

The obvious trade flop we're referring to is that infamous Gavin Lux deal, which has aged poorly. Lux spent just one season in Cincinnati, accruing 0.5 fWAR while playing some really poor defense and barely hitting above league average with a 105 wRC+.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, got one of those top outfield prospects that is now pushing Hernández out of Los Angeles. Mike Sirota has become a universal top-20 prospect under their watch, posting a preposterous .461 on-base percentage in the high minors this year. He'd certainly be looking pretty good alongside Alfredo Duno as the top prospect in the Reds' system right now.

There's also that seven-player trade during the 2018-19 offseason that centered around from Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. One that, at the time, appeared to be a massive win for the Reds. Cincinnati received Yasiel Puig (a 27-year-old coming off an .820 OPS), Alex Wood (an All-Star in 2017), Matt Kemp (an All-Star in 2018), and Kyle Farmer (a utility player with five years of team control) for a past-his-prime Bailey and two prospects.

Unfortunately, history once again sided with the Dodgers. Bailey never pitched for LA and was traded before the 2019 season began. But Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs blossomed into top-100 prospects and were later involved in franchise-defining trades. Gray was part of the Max Scherzer/ Trea Turner deal, while Downs was a key piece in the trade that brought Mookie Betts to Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Puig, Wood, and Kemp all lasted just one year (or less) with the Reds, while Farmer — a meager throw-in — gave them four years and posted 2.9 bWAR.

Now, if you hope to compete, you can't manage scared. Just because the Dodgers have taken the Reds for a ride in the past, Nick Krall and Cincinnati's front office can't ignore how much Hernández would lengthen their lineup.

But if Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers front office seems a little too excited to get a deal across the finish line, it might behoove Krall and Co. to take a moment before agreeing to a deal that would bring Hernández to the Queen City.

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