Reds' Gavin Lux trade is looking worse than ever as Dodgers prospect aims for history

When the Cincinnati Reds traded for Gavin Lux, they thought they were buying certainty. The prospect they sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Lux, outfielder Mike Sirota, appeared to be a draft steal back in 2024, but the then-21-year-old was far from a finished product coming out of Northeastern.

Sirota was traded away before ever playing a game in the Reds' system. Lux, meanwhile, underwhelmed despite his versatility. He hit a decent .269/.350/.374 with 12 homers for Cincinnati, but his failure to play even average defense ultimately nuked his value. Subpar glove work plus a 102 wRC+ was a recipe for a 0.3 fWAR, and essentially replacement-level performance.

In fact, the best thing Lux might have done was bring Brock Burke to the Queen City via the three-team trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Los Angeles Angels.

Meanwhile, Sirota has gone on to look like a potential future star with the Dodgers. He's in the midst of a face-melting on-base streak that, as of the end of June, has reached 65 games and counting during his time split between High-A and Double-A in the Dodgers' system.

On the year, Sirota has hit .325/.483/.574 with 13 homers, 46 RBI and 11 steals so far, which is a performance that has him shooting up the prospect rankings and securing the No.12 spot on Baseball America's updated top 100 for July.

Reds trading away Mike Sirota before he played a professional game was a terrible idea

It's always tempting to look at the end result to confirm whether or not a particular move was wise or a mistake, but through that lens, we miss a lot of context. Hindsight is 20-20, but just because things break one way doesn't mean they'll continue to do so in similar situations.

Instead, evaluating the process and considering the facts on the ground at the time a move was made is the better way to judge things, as it eliminates the outlier outcomes.

As for Sirota, Nick Krall and the Reds made a huge mistake for two distinct reasons. First, if you're fortunate to draft a first-round talent in the third round, it would behoove you to see what he's got before giving up on him.

Second, consider why the Dodgers wanted Sirota in the first place. Los Angeles had actually drafted the young outfielder when he was coming out of high school, using a 16th-round pick on him in 2021. Sirota didn't sign as he wanted to go to college, but it's no surprise that LA had his name circled once negotiations began.

The Dodgers consistently have a top-rated farm system, which is especially impressive considering they always pick at the back of the draft and have smaller bonus pools both for draft and international prospects. That means if they're hot on the tail of a prospect, there's a good chance he's going to be good.

The ridiculous on-base streak gets the headlines, but Sirota was really good last year, too. His .333/.452/.616 line in 2025 between Single-A and High-A is more or less the same as his performance this year.

At the end of the day, the Reds must be kicking themselves. Outside of Hector Rodriguez, the system is light on high-end outfield prospects; and the outfield has been a revolving door on the major league roster. Sirota appears to be an impact fast riser. They could have replicated Lux's 2025 performance from a variety of different options, but prospects with the pedigree that Sirota has developed don't grow on trees.

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