Royals-Seth Lugo deal could spark surprise in-season extension move from Reds

The Kansas City Royals surprised baseball fans on Sunday night with news that they'd come to terms with starting pitcher Seth Lugo on a two-year contract extension. The deal is expected to be worth at least $46 million and effectively takes one of the top trade chips off the market. Should the Cincinnati Reds follow suit and extend Emilio Pagán before he reaches free agency this offseason?

The Reds have a laundry list of players who'll be entering free agency this winter. Nick Martinez, Austin Hays, and Taylor Rogers will all be able to sign elsewhere after the 2025 season concludes, while Scott Barlow and Brent Suter could enter the free agent market as well.

But in terms of the Reds' impending free agents, none may be more important to the team's future success than Pagán. The Reds closer has been a reliable piece of the Reds bullpen this season and owns a terrific 2.64 ERA to go along with 22 saves.

Seth Lugo deal could spark surprise in-season extension between the Reds and Emilio Pagán

Pagán is in the final year of the two-year, $16 million deal he signed with the Reds prior to the 2024 season. The veteran right-hander came to Cincinnati following a successful stint with the Minnesota Twins in 2023, but injuries and poor performance plagued Pagán last season.

Reds manager Terry Francona, however, anointed Pagán as the team's closer this past spring. After seeing former closer Alexis Díaz falter, Francona needed a dependable arm at the backend of the bullpen. Pagán was up to the task, and along with fellow right-hander Tony Santillan, has formed a phenomenal 1-2 punch in the eighth and ninth innings when Cincinnati has the lead.

Díaz's horrififc performance this season resulted in a trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The former Reds closer has done little to impress his new team and is still sporting a gruesome 9.00 ERA and 12.2% walk rate. The Reds were hoping that one of Zach Maxwell or Graham Ashcraft would take a step forward this season and become the unquestioned closer heading into 2026. That has yet to happen, however, and Cincinnati may be backed into a corner this offseason if Pagán is allowed to walk.

Extending Pagán should not take precedence over upgrades at the MLB trade deadline, but it would show the Reds clubhouse that Cincinnati's front office and ownership are not only committed to winning right now, but into next season as well.

Though the right-hander will turn 35 years old shortly after the 2026 season begins, having a veteran like Pagán to help lock down the lead late in games and mentor the young relievers could be invaluable for the organization moving forward.

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