Reds have too much riding on Chase Petty's 2027 breakthrough

As things are currently lined up, the Cincinnati Reds' projected starting rotation next year will be: Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson. Not only is that a lefty-heavy group, but it's also one with a long track record of injuries.

The Reds are already down one of their best starters in Hunter Greene, who won't pitch in 2027 while he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

You could argue that one of José Franco or the recently acquired Duncan Davitt have a path to grabbing the ever-important sixth starter role, but former top prospect Chase Petty is the one with the most MLB experience and the most impressive prospect pedigree.

It's probably unwise to rely on Petty given his struggles in the big leagues, but Cincinnati appears ready to gamble on his readiness as one of their depth options in 2027.

Reds owe it to themselves and Chase Petty to add a buffer to their pitching depth this offseason

Petty's struggles in the big leagues have been well-documented to this point; the 23-year-old owns a 7.17 ERA and 6.72 FIP over 37⅔ career innings, accruing -0.5 fWAR in that time. Whether it's an egregious habit of giving up free passes, allowing a lot of loud fly-ball contact, or an inability to pitch his way out of jams, the right-hander hasn't found a way to beat the best hitters in the world consistently.

However, things took a serious turn for the better after the Reds "demoted' him to the bullpen this past summer. After posting an 11.21 ERA in his first five career starts, Petty made 13 relief appearances this year and thrived — his ERA shrank to 3.72, and his OPS against decreased by nearly 100 points.

Perhaps entrusting him with a bulk reliever role would be the best path forward, but the Reds don't have that luxury right now. Their pitching depth is thin sans Greene and Cincinnati has very little in the way of veteran reinforcements looming on the roster.

President of baseball operations Nick Krall has said that addressing this particular need is a priority this offseason, but with limited resources at his disposal and an entire offense to overhaul, it's unclear if he'll be able to acquire enough depth to justify moving Petty into the bullpen on a full-time basis.

In effect, the 2027 season could be a make-or-break campaign for the young right-hander, who will likely receive his best chance yet to lock down a gig in the starting rotation. If he succeeds, the depth problems may resolve themselves. If he fails, the Reds will be in a world of trouble.

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