Reds may be tempted by Nick Martinez contract prediction, but it’s not worth the risk

Among the Cincinnati Reds' key free agents, Nick Martinez is probably relatively low on the totem pole. The platonic ideal of a swingman, Martinez has been excellent during his two years in Cincinnati. However, with so many holes elsewhere on the roster, it's possible he slips through the cracks in the Reds' offseason plan.

In fact, despite MLB Trade Rumors' reasonable contract prediction for Martinez (two years and $25 million), none of the experts seem to believe he'll still be in the Queen City come 2026.

It's difficult to see the Reds re-signing Nick Martinez this offseason

Martinez has done exactly what's been asked of him since joining the Reds prior to the 2024 season, accruing 6.3 WAR while recording a 3.83 ERA in 308 frames. Notably, he's started 42 games and made 40 appearances out of the bullpen in that time, living up to his hybrid pitcher profile.

That's an exceedingly valuable player to have on the roster — it's rare for a pitcher to be able to seamlessly transition between the rotation and bullpen multiple times during the season — but not one the Reds may be able to afford if they prioritize other needs.

Everyone knows about their huge need of power in the lineup. Even if that doesn't lead them to Kyle Schwarber, money will have to be invested in getting a slugger (or two) in the middle of the order.

There's also a need in the bullpen for leverage relief arms, especially if Emilio Pagán departs over the winter. Martinez can fill that role with aplomb, but if he prefers to focus on being a starter or swingman, the Reds may have a hard time offering him that job given all of the talent they have in the rotation.

Also, for what it's worth, MLBTR's contract prediction feels very light for a pitcher of Martinez's caliber, especially for the teams they attach to him (Yankees, Mets, Padres, etc.). Remember, he was serviceable as a starter (4.72 ERA) and dominant as a reliever (2.61 ERA) in 2025, a continuation of his performance from 2024 (3.84 ERA as a starter, 1.86 ERA as a reliever).

Even at 35 years old, that profile is probably worth more than $12.5 million per year, and it might not be in the Reds' best interest to get involved in a bidding war with some of baseball's highest-spending teams.

Losing Martinez would be a big blow to the infrastructure of the Reds' pitching staff, but sacrifices have to be made by small-market clubs looking to improve elsewhere. If Martinez commands anything more than his projected contract, expect Cincinnati to bow out of his market.