Reds suddenly look like geniuses after Tarik Skubal arbitration shocker

A few years ago, the Cincinnati Reds decided to hitch their wagon to an emerging young pitcher named Hunter Greene. Following his rookie season in 2022, Cincinnati signed Greene to a six-year, $53 million extension. Based on the payday Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal just received, Nick Krall and the Reds front office made a wise decision.

Skubal won his arbitration case against the Tigers and will take home $32 million in 2026 — a $22 million raise from his 2025 season. Detroit filed at $19 million, but the arbiter ruled in favor of the player, and his decision will likely have huge ramifications moving into the impending lockout.

Reds deal for Hunter Greene is outright bargain after Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal wins $32 million in arbitration shocker

To be clear, Skubal is a special case. He's a back-to-back Cy Young Award-winner and is well regarded as the best starting pitcher in all of baseball not named Paul Skenes. While some fans may disagree with the ruling, there's no way to dismiss Skubal's talent.

According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, a seldom-used provision in arbitration that allows players with five-plus years of service and so-called "special accomplishment" -- back-to-back Cy Youngs qualify -- to compare their salaries not just to those in the arbitration system but all major league players. Given Greene's accomplishments (and potential), there's reason to believe he could've exploited the same provision.

Greene is under contract through 2028 with a club-option for the 2029 season. The average annual value of his deal is a meager $8.3 million. The fireballer is taking home $8.3 million this season — what would've Year 2 of the three-year arbitration process had he not signed an extension. Greene will earn $15.3 million in 2027, $16.3 million in 2028, and his club-option is worth $21 million in 2029. His contract also contains escalators for All-Star appearances and Cy Young finishes.

There's always risk when it comes to signing players to long-term contract — especially after just one season in the big leagues. But Skubal just showed why such an extension can be a wise investment, and it's a path the Reds may want to follow with other young players on their roster.