Reds bargain deal for Hunter Greene reveals clear blueprint, but there's obvious risk

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene is the biggest bargain in baseball, and frankly, it's not even close. Sure, the Atlanta Braves have both Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña Jr. on relatively cheap contracts, and players like Yordan Álvarez and José Ramirez offer tremendous value. But Greene's six-year, $53 million contract extension ranks at the top of the list.

The Reds are paying Greene an average of $8.8 million per season to produce the type of results that would net a free agent starter $35 million-plus on the open market. In other words, Greene should be making about five or six times what he's actually taking home, and his base salary this season is just $6.3 million.

But that's exactly the type of deal the Reds need to negotiate, and it's high-time Nick Krall and Co. do it again. Greene inked his extension in 2023, but there've been crickets from the front office — outside of Jose Trevino's extension — ever since. Cincinnati's already done the hard part; they've found the players who are deserving of these types of extensions. Now it's time to finish the deal(s).

Reds bargain deal for Hunter Greene reveals clear blueprint, but there's obvious risk

There's certainly risk when it comes to offering a first or second-year player multi-year deals based on potential over production. When Greene debuted in 2022, he showed flashes, but the results weren't exactly stellar. The right-hander went 5-13 during his rookie year, and while he put up outstanding strikeout numbers (30.9% K rate), the opposition took him deep 24 times, and he was oftentimes removed from games after just five innings, if not before.

Greene's six-year deal following a year in which he posted a 4.44 ERA and only logged 125 innings caused a number of MLB experts and pundits to raise concerns. But the flamethrower has since proven the doubters wrong. Greene has blossomed into a Cy Young candidate this season, signaling that those types of high-risk/ high-reward contracts are the ones that Cincinnati's front office and ownership must be willing to make in order to compete.

It's doubtful that Cincinnati could get that type of value for a player like Nick Lodolo at this point in his career, though his injury history could factor in and bring that price point down a little bit. Other pitchers who the Reds should be looking to negotiate with included Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and perhaps even Chase Burns.

The position player side of things gets a little more difficult. Obviously the Reds tried, but failed, to secure a long-term deal with Matt McLain. Unless Cincinnati blew Elly De La Cruz out of the water with a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. type of extension, he's almost certainly ticketed to test free agency after the 2029 season. But players like Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and even top prospect Sal Stewart represent the mold of players the Reds should be looking to sign long-term.

The Reds acted quickly back in 2023 when they signed Greene to a contract extension, and that's the only way Cincinnati can be assured of keeping their top-talent in the organization over the long haul. There's undoubtedly a great deal of risk when it comes to those types of deals, but if the Reds are unwilling to spend in free agency, it's the only strategy that's likely to work.

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