One overlooked Tyler Stephenson skill could raise the Reds asking price

The Cincinnati Reds' trade deadline strategy is coming into greater focus. The Reds are open for business, but Ken Rosenthal reports that they're interested in adding controllable big leaguers. That indicates a desire to retool for a run in 2027, putting their expiring veterans at the forefront as the club's biggest trade chips.

One of those veteran trade chips is Tyler Stephenson, who should already hold some value given the uncertainty of the catching market. The New York Yankees are desperate for a catcher, but the availability of top targets like Ryan Jeffers of the Minnesota Twins and Hunter Goodman of the Colorado Rockies is questionable. Add in the latest injury to Baltimore Orioles backstop Adley Rutschman, and the options for contenders are slim.

The Yankees aren't alone in their desire to upgrade behind the plate. The Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Rays, and Los Angeles Dodgers are just a handful of contenders who could be on the market for a new catcher.

Stephenson might not have the same luster as the top-tier options. The 30-year-old is hitting .244/.321/.391 with eight homers and a below-average 92 wRC+. However, Cincinnati could still hit the jackpot by dealing its long-time catcher, and his undervalued skill when it comes to ABS challenges could raise the asking price.

Stephenson is one of the very best in the game in this regard, and for multiple reasons. He's third in MLB among all catchers in overturns versus expected with 15.5. He's produced a 0.8 run value, which ranks fifth, one spot behind teammate Jose Trevino, who has registered 0.9. Stephenson's 93 challenges are the second-most in the majors, and he's won a whopping 72% of them.

Now add in the fact that he's produced 11 blocked pitches above average, a 100th percentile mark, and it's clear that the long-time Reds stalwart provides immense defensive value. Catcher is very much a defense-first position, so having a player with Stephenson's defensive value and offensive performance that's in shouting distance of average is ridiculously valuable.

There are even more reasons why the Reds could net a huge haul by trading Tyler Stephenson

So it's clear that Stephenson is a top performer in several key defensive metrics specific to the catching position, but there's even more than meets the eye regarding his offensive performance.

You can look at his 2026 line and say that it's subpar, and it is. Those are the results that he's actually produced, and it's pretty far beneath what he's done as an above-average hitter for most of his career.

With that said, just because his season got off to an underwhelming start doesn't mean that he will continue to hit that way. The underlying metrics paint a pretty rosy picture. Stephenson ranks between the 72nd and 79th percentile in the following metrics: barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and xSLG.

He's also a 94th percentile performer in chase rate and launch angle sweet spot. That's all led to an xwOBA of .342, that comes on the strength of a .251 xBA and .460 SLG to go along with a well-above-average 10.4% walk rate.

Turning the analytics into actual production is important, and we may have already seen Stephenson begin to turn the corner. Since June 1, he's hitting .309/.356/.485 with four homers over a 104-plate-appearance span.

The ABS challenge excellence is key, given the new environment MLB clubs live in this season, and when you combine that with the other defensive value and encouraging offensive turnaround, you can make an argument that Stephenson is actually one of the most valuable players on the trade block. The Reds should be able to land several high-end prospects for his services.

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